RE: Russia-Ukraine War 2022: Winners and Losers (Part Two: Winners)
You are viewing a single comment's thread:
What a super post - I love reading different perspectives outside of my local news media about the Ukraine/Russian conflict. In reading your Winners list I was waiting for you to discuss Taiwan - can't help but feel it is the country on the edge - well, outside of Europe. If Russia can't complete their takeover of Ukraine, or it ends in an absolute destruction of their economy with ongoing sanctions - you can't help but see Taiwan as the major winner in all of this. The other side of the knife, if Russia can normalise relations with the west and insert a puppet government in Ukraine - well, Taiwan, watch out.
Green Energy - as a tangent thought, a lot of western countries in Russia, who were developing green energy assets have moved out of the country - could set back green energy years in Russia itself. There is a company in Australia - Fortescue, who is actually a big iron ore miner, but they have a green industries arm - and are seeking hydrogen projects around the world. Think they have walked away from a significant project in Russia's east - where the assumption is the Russian river systems could be a green energy flow of 'gold'.
Thanks for your time.
Tim
Taiwan should feel pretty nervous about how events are unfolding in Ukraine. If the war in Ukraine escalates and China becomes involved, Taiwan could become a strategic target. I think the best outcome for Taiwan would be if peace talks between Russia and Ukraine resolves the war as soon as possible.
I was not aware of the green energy work going in Russia. If these companies are pulling out permanently then green energy could be setback. It also depends on the extent of the work being carried out and how that compares with work done elsewhere.
You have to figure any pullout of those green energy projects will likely not be dependent on the companies themselves, but where it is 'trendy' to remain pulled out - and indeed, whether Russia would take them back in, or simply take over their infrastructure in place! If I was a dictator with a grudge, I'd do the latter for sure!
I dunno, if Ukraine completely falls, the biggest threat to Taiwan is that democracies can, and indeed, have fallen. This line seems to be it's biggest security card, 'I am a democracy, therefore, have allies that will fight for democracy'. That said, for China's government to maintain their own narratives about unrivaled economic growth - they need the west. Sanctions would cripple the country given their place in the world is far more significant in its reach than Russia, whose energy markets will be more buoyant at same point.
Following the COVID shutdown of ports, and the realisation of the need to diversify supply chains away from China - it may well be that those moves will start to ready the West for an exclusion of China from our economies. India is becoming more entrenched into Western partnerships, I'm thinking the QUAD with Japan, USA, Australia - that it may well continue to raise its influence in Asia and given its population, becomes the natural counter balance to China - especially when or if its population becomes the highest in the world.
Given China's birthrates being in decline - the window to take Taiwan cannot stretch on forever.