Deal or No Deal?

         One of the most popular folklore in crypto is that the market cycle works in strict 4-year cycles. The actuality is that it's more complicated than that. But, to the average person, that seems to be the case. This time, it doesn't seem this way.

         I couldn't help but wonder if $69K (heh) was the top. If that were the case, this cycle definitely seemed underwhelming. Despite the fact that I've done rather well this time around, it still feels a bit bad inside.

What If?

         That's the question. What if we are already in the bear market?

         What if?

         What if the real movement is in Q1 of 2022?

         Should I take less profits anyway? Should I be greedy and wait for better prices? Come think of it, it was much easier to accumulate than to exit and set up for the next cycle.

         The only reason why I would want to "take profits" is to move into other assets, paying off the house, and whatnot. Fiat is, after all, liquidity.

         Some of you may have seen the show Deal or No Deal. The version I watched featured Howie Mandel as the host. You can read into the details on the Wiki page. It's a game based on process of elimination and probabilities.

         In short, contestant start by choosing a suitcase out of two dozens. Each case has a plaque with a money amount on it and are known to the player before shuffled up. The contestant proceeds to choose cases to "eliminate". Each time, the value of the case is revealed. The game's "banker" offers the player a certain amount of money based on the state of the game. The person can then choose to accept the "deal" or say "no deal" to continue the game. The game ends when the contestant either accepts the deal or play to the very end.

         Winning the game is relative. It all depends on the offer accepted versus the content of the chosen suitcase. You'd have to watch it to get what I mean.

The Point

         If anyone ever asks, the latter part of the bull cycle is much like a game of Deal or No Deal. You could be winning all the way. But, how much are you winning?

         Even at the current downtrend, selling what I want to liquidate now would still produce a return. A significant return compared to my capital. The only downside is that I won't be able to complete everything on my list.

         The chilling thought of heading into the bear market would mean I may not realize any of that if I choose to hodl. After giving myself doses of "hopium" and consolation, I came to a conclusion.

         To be honest, I'm not in a hurry. I'm also better off than most Americans, even though it doesn't feel like it at times. If the bear comes, so be it. I'll most likely still sell off the most underperforming assets at a profit. If the extended cycle plays out, I'll be patient. I'm not desperate enough that my livelihood all hinges on crypto going to the moon.

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         Deal or no deal? For now, to the preverbal banker, I say "no deal!"

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