Oh! So it's gonna be like that, huh?
Obviously everyone is QQ about the market right now.
Not really keen on writing another post based on price action, but here we are. My long position was liquidated last night in my sleep (as per usual). I used the left-over funds to bail myself out of the cub kingdom to get more CUB/BUSD LP. At this point that BUSD is a really good lifeline. If it wasn't for DEFI I'd never have that many stable coins, so while DEFI and CUB have been a brutal landscape, I'm still grateful that these incentives exist that put me in a much better position on the downswing.
Like many before me, I tried to make my money back instead of capitulating, and all I succeeded in doing was losing more money. It's not the first time. It could be the last though. I am slowly but surely learning the hard lessons. So far, this surprisingly isn't even nearly as bad as 2018 yet. Perhaps we have a long way to go before recovery. The piss-poor state of the legacy economy would seem to corroborate this sad state of affairs. When it rains it pours!
Considering a recession hasn't come into play yet this puts us all in a super awkward position. It's not like I'm going to risk even more to double down on some other long position at this point. Finding some low-paying job like I did in 2018 with Amazon is not really a viable option for me at this juncture. Rather, I just have to accept this capitulation phase and play it safe so I don't get sent to the poor house.
15%! WHAT!
It's wild to see that Bitcoin is only a 15% dip away from the 2017 highs of $20k. Wow! That escalated quickly! You know I was put in a similar position during the 2018 bear market as well. I had my ETH/DAI MakerDAO positions liquidated TWICE and still some how ended up making money in the long run. I guess that's what happens when the price runs up from $230 to $4000. Such volatility!
And of course we can all see that everyone complains about the volatility (when number go down of course), but no one actually proposes any ideas on how to reduce it. I mean I have some theories, but they've never actually been put to the test so who knows if they even work. That's not really the point though... The point is that currencies are supposed to be stable, but no one is trying to make their currency more stable. It's some intriguing psychology. Why is it happening?
My guess would be is the cultural celebration of greed that we see on a daily basis. People like to gamble. People celebrate the volatility when number goes up and then cry foul during the downswing. Deep down the extremely high stakes of this roller coaster ride are exciting, and toning it down doesn't seem to be something that people actually want at the moment. No one wants to be the adult and lower the token price when it's overbought to stabilize the market. Maybe one day when the space has matured a bit we'll see some solutions to this effect. Until then, gamble gamble.
And thus, without proper incentives to stabilize these networks, that leaves it to us plebs to figure it out for ourselves. To buy low and sell high independently and to employ our own responsible strategies for building wealth. Clearly, this isn't a situation that works out very well on the average. Can devs do something? Again, I have some ideas to this end, but they have not been tested (or even developed) yet. Wen?
Everyone says the bear market is for building but that trope has officially been played out now. No one wants to hear that losing all this money is actually a good thing. Sounds more like delusion to some. That being said, my motivation to build is increasing, so perhaps there's something to it after all. It's not like I ever hear the lead devs of Hive crying about the price. They just keep their noses to the grindstone and keep building. That's admirable. This ragtag community isn't going anywhere, but it's possible we should all own a little bit more Bitcoin just in case we get another repeat of 2019/2020. That is how I acquired most of my Hive, after all.
Speaking of Bitcoin...
Dominance is up to 45%. Like I've said on a couple other occasions, 60% is a very real possibility given a brutal crypto winter. Many users have tried to tell me this is an incorrect assessment because there are so many stablecoins out there and whatnot. Uh, spoiler alert: the market cap of stable coins dips just as badly as everything else during the bear market. It is known. Obviously this isn't relevant to those who need to sell out because the stable coin is still worth $1, but it's very relevant to the dominance rating.
2021 Bitcoin Doubling Curves
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13867 | $14933 | $16000 | $17067 | $18133 | $19200 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20267 | $21333 | $22400 | $23467 | $24533 | $25600 |
2022 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27733 | $29867 | $32,000 | $34133 | $36267 | $38400 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40533 | $42667 | $44800 | $46933 | $49067 | $51200 |
Curve not being respected at all.
Already we find ourselves back at the October 2021 level. Hm, that's pretty wild. Talk about two steps forward one step back. Historically I'd say that Bitcoin has a way of recovering quite quickly when it dips below the trendline like this, but also historically Bitcoin has never been in a recession so perhaps there's an argument to be made that there is no history for what we are about to witness.
Celsius Network mention
Amid the gloom and doom in the news feed on my phone, the one thing that stands out is the Celsius Network halting withdrawals and the accusations of insolvency being thrown around. I'm a bit out of my element here because I'm not very familiar with the Celsius Network.
an excellent platform for beginners who don't want to face any risk while trading crypto.
Well isn't that adorable sentiment.
Who writes this stuff? Celsius? :D
Institutional investors also being accused of insider trading.
When institutions dump before the dump, people take notice. At this point after the whole LUNA debacle we may have to ask ourselves:
Is crypto under full-on attack right now and we don't even know it?
Or is this just what happens when a greedy market becomes overleveraged and assumes the price can't drop below $30k? Maybe a little of both? Clearly the sharks are circling, but it's unclear what kind of attacks are being launched behind the veil.
On another level this almost feels like a play to knock all the weak hands into the dirt so that institutions can buy up these networks on the cheap. I mean we haven't even gotten to the part where regulators crack down because of everything that just happened, on top of a potentially crippling recession. And that's not even FUD, but rather an objective statement of the facts as I see them. Wouldn't it be foolish to think that regulators aren't going to come in gunz-a-blazin? Wouldn't it be foolish to ignore that the economy is on life-support right now and "inflation" is a very alarming indicator of where this is all going?
Again, this just puts us all in a very awkward position. We can all see that Bitcoin is a great deal at $23k, but there are still plenty of wildcards out there that can smack it around a bit more. I suppose at the end of the day it's not about timing the market, but time in the market. When we make that decision to buy we usually get over-excited and go all in with everything we got. Unfortunately that's almost never the correct way to play it, and it's certainly the most volatile way to play it with the highest risk.
Under threat of sounding like a broken record: DCA DCA DCA
Number go up: sell a tiny amount.
Number go down: buy a tiny amount.
Sounds so simple but it's weirdly the hardest thing to do in crypto.
Looking at lines on a chart is nothing like living lines on a chart.
This is something I didn't understand when I first got into crypto. It was one thing to look at the Bitcoin crash of 2014 on my screen in retrospect, but actually living through the brutal crypto winter of 2018/2019 was something else entirely. I imagine what I experienced in 2018/2019 was very similar to what people experienced in 2014, but again those raw emotions simply don't translate when looking at a chart.
And now we are nearing $1k again...
And do you think the, "you're so lucky you got in under $1k" guy is buying? lol, of course not. We've seen it happen a thousand times. No one wants to buy during FUD season. Fuel to the volatility fire. Can someone post the theater meme of everyone wanting to buy at $69k but no one wants to buy at the current price? KK, thanks in advance.
Conclusion
Today's crash was a very sobering experience. Many mixed feelings about this whole situation. I think in the end the most frustrating thing is that everyone around here wants to work and make money from their work and provide value to the network/community, but for many that's simply not a viable option due to the lacking infrastructure and opportunity being currently offered in the cryptosphere. This community doesn't need a million bloggers, just like it doesn't need a million doctors, lawyers, or hair stylists. Fully functioning economies have a wide array of professions, goods, and services that need to be provided, and crypto just isn't there yet in terms of infrastructure. Too bad so sad. Soon™
So again, even amid this river of blood we are all wading through, I'm still grateful that I find myself in the current position of being able to write these words for money while still having the opportunity to reinvest the surplus into what will hopefully be a future filled with opportunity. #dreambig!
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Ahhhhh the good old waking up to big fat email of misery. We all have been there I think and it aint no fun.
But same here as for you, I am counting the blessings for all the projects we have running in these times so we are still ready to rumble for when everything gets holds its head high again!
#justascratchnoworries
Ha yeah at least I got an email this time.
MakerDAO liquidations aren't as courteous.
One really can't say this is the issue with the cryto market. It's really getting worse day by day and no one has the idea of when it's going back to it right shape.. even buying the deep, you still get deep the more.. thanks for sharing
The only thing about what's happening with crypto that is characteristic about crypto is the volatility. Crypto itself is victim to the broader market losses taking place all over. Aside from oil, commodities are taking their lumps as well.
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Certainly friend @edicted , in my case the recession and the low income in Hive, has not even allowed me to buy my medicines, after an intervention in the cerebellum, for three years and Hive was my support, fortunately I do yoga and I help for my rehabilitation, but without my medicines it is worrying. Well, I have faith that very soon, my earnings on Hive will go up. Success for you my consistent friend, and that this world economic recession is over. Cheers
I am sorry that the price of HIVE is affecting your ability to buy medicine.
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Found it and updated on the current Situation 😁✌🏻
lol perfect
I was hoping someone would actually follow through
ROFL
My bags are sad, my brain sees the opportunity and yet, I also feel some insecurity.
Anyway, might as well hold.
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Might as well HODL!
And remind myself to not even look at my cub cause I might cry.
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The other day talking in the Splinterlands Discord chat institutions came in the discussion somehow (some guy was defending that Bitcoin wouldn't go lower because there are institutional investors ), I said that institutions investing in Bitcoin is one of the things that I'm most afraid of. Certainly I was expecting a recovery from the 0.50 $ per Hive though.
My argument is that institutions and govs have been against Bitcoin since the beginning. They have been quite vocal about it so the fact that they are in doesn't necessarily mean that they are interested in its success.
This article of yours seems to point a possible attack to Bitcoin, we're guessing it for sure but does make sense to me that possibility.
Some collateral damages of this are Costa Rica and his gov backstabbed for their "gamble" of investing in Bitcoin. I wonder if some of the govs that have invested in Bitcoin haven't done it as a way to leverage the inflation with crypto while they're keep printing money and blaming crypto for the dip. While is obviously the traditional economy and a very convenient war for some what is provoking this. Sharks win-win and win again.
el.salvador?
Right, my bad I mean El Salvador 😅
What do you think about hive ? Are we going to est 10 cents?
I'd go all in on Hive at 20-25 cents and then if we did end up getting that low trade on leverage to get more at 10 cents. I think Hive has actually made a lot of progress since our last grind at 10 cents. I'm hoping/expecting that the 20-25 range will easily hold.
So according to this chart, you will get angry in some time. Just a heads up 😅
Every time I tell myself I will trade differently in the macro bear-bull cycle, yet I don't act on it 🤔 What's wrong with me?! :D
I sold Hive perfectly at $3 only to rebuy it at $2.4 - UH!
We are learning it the hard way I guess
right on the money
This isn't the Bitcoin Rainbow chart I was thinking about, but it's just as useful.
@elcomentador-- please curate the comment by @tobetada.
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I swrrrrrrrr!
This would be the best way to ride this market trend. .,,, or even any trend actually.
Awesome closing. Same here.
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If you think it's that simple, just put everything into a btc/USD pool and you're set ;)
The more liquid a market is, the less volatile it is. It's very hard to move the US dollar by 1% in a day for instance, even the central banks can't do it. And there are 200 fiat currencies in the world and a good chunk are either pegged to the dollar (eg Saudi riayl) or pegged to the euro (former French Africa).
By contrast there are thousands of cryptocurrencies, most with poor liquidity.
In the early days (around 2013), bitcoin maximalists used to argue that alts were a threat to bitcoin liquidity and launched 51% attacks to kill them off - lots of early alts met their demise that way.
They weren't completely wrong. Yes we need some experimentation, but there are now too many alts, many with no use case, that are just a misallocation of resources.
So the solution is that some alts need to die, so that liquidity is deepened amongst the major coins.
Luna should never have been revived for example. It was a clear market failure, why should a second version work? Do Kwon's backers should have been ruthless and cut off the funds. The exchanges should have been brutal and refused to list Luna2. But they caved and that's a problem. Nothing is being allowed to fail, and paradoxically that might make the whole crypto space fail.
Luna should have never been revived yet so many people here on hive were throwing $10 $15 $50 bucks in during the crash, and calling them lottery tickets.
Not just any "people" on HIVE but leofinance writers and commenters who "knew" it was a bad idea but just couldn't help themselves anyway.
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Yes. No one should be afraid to #dreambig. There will be a new period of accumulation, with great opportunities for the future.
We're all gonna die!
Just kidding.
I knew I'd live forever.
Thanks for confirmation.
So much better than death threats ammirite!
That is actually very certain.
It's almost as if I know about science or something...
There's beauty in death
,ask Do Kwon for further details.
Bull me vs Bear me 🙏
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Oh, the doubling curve... I was attached to this one.
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I was waiting for that last HURRAH before the "real bear" came.
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I'm still waiting for it.
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i told you edicted as your empire fell i'd be the last face you see standing over you.....karma is a bitch and i got more for you
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Sorry? How does that benefit you?
Your attitude is contradictory and absurd.
Aren't you building a community?
How's that going?
that's kinda trivial to me.. kinda moreso building a stable currency with payment gateways we have nearly 19,000 registered accounts now with low level kyc i don't much need folks around singing kumbaya
edicted i thought you were smarter than that. let me give this example. let's say i lie to people for 100 years and i tell them crony capitalism works and then it begans to implode so i can kick the can down the road for 100 years until the bottom drops out..
what happens once it does?
everyone acknowledges and accepts ubi. see i don't have to win directly.. if ubi wins i still win you see. ubi projects can't really be successful until all your lies are finished for good and that's what's happening now.. until all the lies about humans will be smarter than computers and irreplacable are gone..You all lead these sheeple to the slaughter.. so when they see the neon light slaughter house sign edicted they go i'm now the wiser and i wish not to get slaughtered
there is a certain poetic justic in my words and i will have my validation in this quarter or the next!!!!!!
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I was just writing about this, but a different tangent.
I wrote about the Lemming like aspect of our culture, but you have hit on another strong cultural trait we have; gambling.
We do love it.
I remember having a long discussion with someone dear to me about the value of investing in dividend stocks, rental properties with positive cash flow and selling calls monthly on stocks you never want to sell, as I was painting a picture of how you could use any asset wisely to make consistent income, and get rich slowly…
The person I was talking to said those were good ideas, but the real genius he appreciated was a crypto investor who routinely bought 1000 shares of the newest meme tokens, as part of 100 different token bunches once a week, and how this guy was rich because one of the tokens 100x each week making up for his losses on the other 99 tokens. He thought the guy was genius. I thought the guy was a gambler.
But that’s who we celebrate in this culture.
Gamblers.
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1000 shares of any of these new meme tokens could be as little as a dollar or a euro. So a bunch of 100 of these things may have cost about USD 100 or EUR 98.
If he has the disposable income available to do this, God bless him. If he does this along with regular purchases of BTC/ETH/etc., he should be OK.
If he does not, he would be like the poor people who spend hundreds of dollars twice a week at the grocery store buying lottery tickets hoping to hit the jackpot. For those people, maybe the memecoin strategy would have worked out better for them.
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True, I hope he wins. But your right, the majority will lose.
I tried to do something similar with Hive Engine tokens, then I discovered how important liquidity was.
As for the person you wrote about, it must be a nightmare to manage that wallet or portfolio he has.
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I was thinking along the same lines.
Every Christmas my family (my grandparents and their 100+ descendants) get together and the amount of "scratcher tickets" that is handed from person to person is insane.
Someone of course always yells out "I won $50" or "I won $100" but if you start paying attention, our family is throwing soooooo much money away.
At least we can pretend it helps pay for education (the California Lottery system is supposed to help pay for education costs) and, well, it is lots of fun to give out scratcher tickets.
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I love the name scratcher tickets.
It sounds so fun and harmless…but then you had to bring up the fact of how much money your family is throwing away… it’s in our culture. LOL perhaps our very beings : )
Very well written. I’ve been it brutal mark set a but never this leveraged or fully invested. I’m fortunate at the moment to be able to hold long and DCA into my favorite projects. However I keep accelerating as we go down. At some point I can’t keep averaging.
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I admire your equanimity. Even as a no-coiner, as a disbeliever in the value of mere monetary wealth, I am distraught. I'm just glad I get to keep bending nails for my neighbors, and they will likely keep me in bread and beans for my trouble.
Thanks!
Wait, so volatile assets are volatile?
I wish someone told me this earlier!!
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This happens most of the time so I just wish we should get over the stress very soon and hope to see the green light soon
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It only took two years last time...
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Yeah ☺️☺️
For someone who lost money because the option to keep it was removed-- say, meeting a margin call, or liquidating to pay debt elsewhere, or bankruptcy-- losing money is definitely a bad thing.
So when is losing money a good thing? If the money was spent as a malinvestment or a misalloation of resources. If you've participated in fads such as Pet Rocks or Beanie Babies, then you know what I mean. The losses act like the fire of a crucible whose purpose is to burn off impurities so that the good stuff remains or the crucible is emptied altogether.
I'm guessing that most of us here have some experience with the malinvestment scenarios, but this isn't what you're talking about here. We're going to take hits, but we know it will end. What we don't know is when.
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Oh man, people used to buy rocks.
And pay for all that shipping to get it sent to them.
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While not a fad, people used to pay for "scented air" from the seashore, beach, or (for a few twisted people), the methane-enhanced among us. Open Sea even has NFTs based on this theme.
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Are you saying I could have been selling my farts all along?!?
Only if you could find willing buyers. Maybe Hive has a limited market, but Open Sea definitely has some sellers there doing just that.
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This is the law in crypto, everything will surely played out
Well, we build during the bear is mostly coming from those who have been here a looooooong time.
We aren't crying (yet) because some of us bought in lower than even the current price so while we act all cool and say "build during the bear" we are actually still in the green (plus interest).
I don't think it is delusion so much as it is like building a house in California. The price is going to bust, you just gotta be happy with what you have, where you live, and not how "upside down" you are with your mortgage.
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Greetings @edicted
no doubt that these are and will be very hard times and it will take several months to see a new growth of the entire market, we must return to generate income in other ways to withstand the strong winter that is today. This cycle will pass but it is just beginning and having weak hands does not contribute anything.
My version of DCA is:
Number Go Up: Buy a tiny amount
Number go Down: Buy a tiny amount
Number stay the same: Buy a tiny amount
I've never understood the people that panic sell when the price is low and then panic buy when the price is high. If you are buying high and selling low then I think you are doing something wrong. On the other hand, if you are currently living off of crypto then I'm sure all of this is pretty terrifying.
But then my strategy is that either crypto will be my retirement...or it won't. I don't really have a plan for a middle ground. For me the question is what to buy? I don't have huge sums invested in anything. I can't afford that. But I'm always putting in a little. I have a disproportionate amount in hive because I like hive. Then I have some of the usual suspects...Bitcoin, Litecoin, ETH...and every now and then I'll buy something different. Still waiting for the value of Gridcoin to explode...
The bear market will not be over until not only all the weak hands have given up but even the stronger hands have capitulated. We are nowhere near that yet. Still too much pragmatic optimism around.
Yes, there are many here who are looking to create content and make a living off of it. And yes, maybe we do not need a million bloggers. But maybe we need a million teachers. People who teach everything from coding to cutting hair. And this platform most certainly can cater for all of them!
Maybe we can cater for opinion leaders in a variety of fields. Lead in market commentary, financial and otherwise.
There are many income earning possibilities on this platform that the bear market will bring to the fore.
Can't wait!
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