Overthrowing the Myanmar junta will be overwhelmingly beneficial to the US, as a pro-US Burmese government will help blocking Commie China's expansion into Southeast Asian regions. But the cost of doing so may overweight the benefits

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At the end of the day it all boils down to cost-benefit analysis:

  1. The location and resources of Myanmar are important to China. Pipelines on Myanmar convey roughly 10% of Chinese imported oil. Myanmar also accounts for about 10% of global rare earth metals supply.
  2. Pro-democracy Burmese will be overwhelmingly pro-Western and anti-China.

Overthrowing the Myanmar junta will be overwhelmingly beneficial to the US, as a pro-US Burmese government will help blocking Commie China's expansion into Southeast Asian regions. But the cost of doing so may overweight the benefits, because:

  1. Commie China will try its best to stop US intervention in Myanmar as it directly impact China's interests.
  2. Democratic Myanmar may not stay loyal to the US (Aung San Suu Kyi participated in China's Belt and Road Initiative soon after she was elected President, karma's indeed a bitch).

Aligning with only one side of the two coalitions (Western world and Authoritarian world) is sure way to die for third world countries.

This is especially true for Indonesia, as it's the closest Southeast Asian neighbor of Australia. Indonesia aligning with China will threaten Australia greatly, which will lead to preemptive actions from Australia.

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