Hive: Where Will Be The Local Top?

 

Surprise, surprise

We got another pump for Hive. It almost seems that these price explosions are not newsworthy anymore since they happen every other day - and that is of course newsworthy in itself... Hive has been in the spotlight the last few weeks as we have seen 7 future listings for Hive and several spot listings with 2 being on a tier 1 exchange (Binance and Bitget). This has had a ripple effect and we are now casually spotted on the Binance's top gainers list with whales seemingly not being able to control themselves. I am still amazed just how much volume we are getting, especially now since we have more listings - Hive is not a small project anymore and we are slowly but surely grinding up in the #200s projects with coinmarketcap listing Hive as #286.

$701M daily volume with the day not even over (!) and almost $240M MC, closing in on 50 cents. 50 cents is a big number since Hive has mostly traded under it for the last years and we have the strongest resistance in this area from a years old trend line. It's what I have dubbed the red horizontal resistance. Breaking this one will be a game changer for Hive and will open the gates into the dollar range again. And guess what. We have just broken it (although we have to wait for a confirmation from next week's candle close).

Where will be the local top?

If you know my chart for Hive which has been spot on since June, I am expecting a local top in the next weeks/months before some more consolidation and a final breakout in late 2025. I have made no secret about trying to sell into this top and buying the lows again, so evaluating where the local top could be is quite relevant for me.

First the macro view where we see a continuation along the outlined pathway:

 

Now lets have a look at where this peak in Q1 could be topping out... Since I am expecting an up to 60%+ correction after that, it could be an amazing opportunity to stack more Hive.

First off, I am slightly revising my target of around $1.3 to around $1, but my confidence for this local top is not super high. What I am essentially seeing is a window between ~80 and 100 cents where selling seems almost mandatory. All of this depends of course on what price does in the next weeks running up to the top, but the upward trend set out by the movement since November plus the resistance coming from trend lines starting in December of last year are all pointing to a top at around this window.

Since I m not completely confident that this will be the local top and it is easy to fomo if we reach these levels I am not going to be selling more than around 10-20% of my stack, but it seems like a "I told you so" moment for not taking profits there. The previous $1.3 target was mainly based on the extent of the upward movement we saw in 2021, so this seems shaky at best.

Exploiting the Whales?

With futures now added on so many exchanges that do not require KYC as well, it could be quite easy to exploit the whales pumping Hive like clockwork. If you haven't noticed, whales on Upbit (for whatever reason) always pump Hive at 00:00 UTC, so it could be easy to open a position and bet on a 10%+ rise in a short time span and also close this position should it not occur (confirmation should be very fast). In practice it's probably not going to be that easy, but definitely worth a try...

That of course gets me thinking that Upbit whales have been doing this all along... Since they control volume, they control price and wouldn't it be nice to take some extra profit along the way in the futures market? That seems like a no brainer, but maybe I am missing something.

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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