Crypto Analysis | Hive Mirrowing Steem?

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

The similarities are astounding

I have often looked at Steem and compared it to Hive, but generally with the log chart in place. When we compare with percentages, however, it reveals a whole new layer of similarity. It’s astounding to say the least!

We can see Steem in candle bards and Hive in purple. There is a lot we can look at in this chart, but the most striking feature is Steem’s and Hive’s price performances in their first years (for Hive this would be relative to Steem in this chart). They are virtually identical right down to the smallest features. It is especially interesting that they both share a first small, but very impulsive wave that led to a 99%+ correction. Price then picks up again and peaks just below the first ATH. We then see around a 60%+ correction and a final massive impulse wave. Looking at the relative differences in % makes these similarities stand out even more than when only looking at the regular chart.
Both Hive and Steem take a deep dive after their peak, but Hive manages to stay somewhat higher afloat. For its second cycle, Steem picks up a bit again in 2021, but never reaches anywhere close to its former ATH. It then fizzles out and never recovers. The question of course is this: will Hive share this same fate?

If so, we should see something like this (the peak would probably be more towards the end of 2025 though. I am also mixing apples and oranges here, since I am trying to depict Hive’s perfomance to the dollar as well as it’s relative performance to Steem):

That would be of course very underwhelming. But it seems like it’s a real chance! In fact, for Hive to reach a new ATH something big would have to transpire. We have a lot going on atm, so it’s not like that couldn’t happen. But it would have to be big. Perhaps:

Wrapped BTC on Hive and EVM compatibility bringing DeFi to Hive?
3Speak network gaining a user base breakthrough?
Inleo gaining massive new users due to more ongoing web2 censorship?

Conclusion

It’s not looking very bright for crypto atm. I am actually worried that this cycle will be a complete underperformer. But there is also so much that could shift momentum, with the biggest catalyst perhaps being the US election. And even if we get a complete regulation/censorship drama, Hive is one of the only chains out there that is actually somewhat ready to use such a climate to its advantage. Although, I am sure, there are still a million roadblocks along the way.

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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