Crypto Analysis | Hive Consolidating - Wen Next Leg Up (Down)?

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

Hive is still very much in accumulation phase

I made this chart a while back and it's holding together quite nicely. The idea is that Hive will still remain in the accumulation phase for a couple more months before actually moving higher.

I had hoped for a more bullish scenario last week, but if Hive doesn't break out in the next days, I don't think that is likely.

Here is an updated chart and a close up:

First, the good news. Volume is at healthy levels, it is several times higher than what we generally had throughout the last year. But... BTC is almost destined for a bigger correction to the high $50ks - in fact, were BTC not to have such a correction this would be rather unhealthy since it could mean that the whole macro cycle could be much shorter overall (ending several months earlier). I'd personally rather have a longer cycle since Hive also needs that time to actually start moving up.

If BTC does "crash" 15-20% or so, Hive should go down by at least 25%+... which would bring us back to ATL levels! So either Hive breaks out to the top before that or BTC won't crash. Both of that seems more unlikely than the bearish scenario atm. But Hive has surprised us in the past.

HIVE/BTC

The Hive/BTC chart is still painful to look at. The price ratio has gone nothing but down over the last 2 years+. There are some signs of consolidation here as well and price is sitting at the 0.236 fib ratio which has a very good track record for pointing to a reversal.

I do have to say, however, that I am quite disappointed by the performance. I was hopeful for a bottom around half a year ago which would have made it possible for Hive to go for a higher high (above 2021 levels). But we very likely have to settle for a mediocre performance. Again, should BTC do its thing and do a bigger drop this chart is kinda ruined, since Hive will drop like a stone... But the chances for a reversal are now relatively high and if so, it could lead to a breakout of Hive into the 50+ cents levels. With everything that is going on at Hive I wouldn't be surprised.

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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