Crypto Analysis | Hive 2024-2025 Outlook

8 months ago

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

I'll give it a try, take it with a grain of salt

These scenarios are always wrong, just their degree of "rightness" varies. With that being said, Hive seems to be back, finally! We are gaining momentum and I am almost starting to feel underexposed to Hive since so much stuff is happening:

WBTC and Lightning integration with Hive
Smart Contracts
Leo integraiton with Maya DEX (which enable Hive swaps with e.g. BTC)
Splinterlands new releases
Speak network
HBD payments
new games
the list goes on...

It feels like Hive is about to go into overdrive with these developments and seems to be unstoppable when we realize that all of this is true organic community driven effort. Everyone involved wants Hive to thrive and since we are actually offering solutions to many day to day challenges it feels like the sky is the limit.

Outlook

In my last post almost a month ago I had this epiphany:

The current accumulation phase could still run to around late summer before the bull could kick in and we could still get to around $10. In theory. It's not completely fantasy since we saw the same relative movement in 2021 - but, there is also the possibility of breaking out of the wedge (blue and red lines converging) sooner.

Should we do that, I would update the scenario to this one here, which is essentially a repeat of 2021 on a longer time frame:

This feels quite realistic. A breakout to around $1.7 in the coming months and a harsh correction back to around 60 cents. While that seems like a high target, it's "only" around a 3.5x - not really crazy... A correction back to 60 cents over half a year would be quite hard to take, but it's what we have seen in the past. This time frame would also sinc with the often observed reverse in the winter months and would leave around 6-9 months for a peak target of $10+.

For this scenario to happen we would need a breakout from this wedge which would correspond at around 50 cents. If we see a rejection then I would tend to the longer accumulation scenario - we will know in the coming week or so!

As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!