Hedged Collapse
I met my first hedge fund manager today, which was pretty interesting. Seemed like a nice guy and we had some pretty interesting discussions, considering we just met. But it was also interesting, as while he is very much part of building a community and sees the downfall of the economic disparity and the inevitability of an extreme market crash, he also obviously doesn't mind being part of the failure. Which I get.
The reason that the economy is such a mess is because of the incentives that drive it. What many people consider a conspiracy, is actually nothing more than an alignment across the economy, whether it be within industries or through global networks. This is because the incentives for business are all the same profit at any cost mechanism.
As I explained to the guy today, if a paper factory could make more money dumping chemicals into the lake we were swimming at, they would. But of course, there are checks and balances in place to stop such behavior. However the rule still stands, meaning they will find any ways they can to improve their profits within the law, and even outside of the law f the penalty for doing so is less than the gain for breaking it.
What this means though is that all companies and governments are going to align to a monetary indicator of success, and inevitably, people are going to suffer. This happens when of course AI and automation takes jobs, but it also happens when production is moves to countries so that child labor can be utilized. It is all aligning to the simple algorithmic approach of "increase profits" and in so doing, make the investors happy - like the people who are invested into a hedge fund.
I believe that while it is human nature to take advantage of the conditions, we are also aligning ourselves to take advantage of one set of conditions, at the cost of another. For example, we have a consumer mindset that drives those profits, even though the products we buy are designed to separate us and worsen our social conditions.
I don't think it is any surprise that the products on offer are designed to make us feel like we are making real connections, but we are actually isolating ourselves further from others. It isn't because of some cabal, it is because that is what drives higher profits. Netflix sells more subscriptions when every individual needs one, rather than one for a family. And of course, more housing is needed for singles, than for couples.
But like all centralized decision making, eventually the alignment to what is best for the minority will eventually fail, because when people aren't having children, housing markets will eventually collapse and, no more subscriptions need be sold. At some point, the increasingly top-heavy economy topples over, because the base can no longer afford to sustain it.
Essentially, the current economy is strangely like a communist system, where a few centralized hands are making the decisions of what resources go where, and we are supporting through the consumption of their choices. But, like communism, it will favor one thing over another, protect one part over another, and maximize itself over the rest.
As I said to the guy today, what we know is that if we continue on this path, the outcome is inevitable. We don't need complex models and AI to predict what happens, because all centralized systems fail. The only perfect system is one that is decentralized and has no preference for anything, nature. However, we can't as a society live like nature, because it becomes barbaric to the point we lose humanity, so we have to do the best we can with what we have.
This means decentralizing, but also aligning ourselves to particular outcomes. The difference however can't be to align to making more money, because money is useless as a resource by itself. Therefore, it has to align to something that matters to us, like human health, wellbeing and opportunity to increase quality of experience.
It is unlikely that any of the current systems that could will ever pivot to do this, so it is likely that the process will keep going the way it is, falling into an incredibly deep collapse to the point society as we know it is destroyed, and then it will start again. This will mean mass war, mass death, mass destruction, but some will survive.
Unless we nuke ourselves completely into oblivion first.
Hedge your bets.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
The discussion with the hedge fund manager is eye-opening. Our economic incentives really need rethinking. No lie brother all Centralized systems eventually fail and history has proven it countless of times. Decentralization is so necessary for stability especially with the kind of powerful tech coming up in the future. I'm hoping too much power doesn't fall in the wrong hands
Your typical HFM believes their wealth & 'genius' will see them through any difficulties.
I wonder what the average lifecycle is for a HFM career.
It seems like many people have just lost their social conscience lately. I agree though, people are probably going to do whatever they can to make more money despite the consequences and by default companies too.
It is only going to get worse - maybe never get better after either. But, gotta try, right?
On a not entirely unrelated note, what was I saying about the assassination attempt a few weeks ago? Seems the Dems lost their opportunity to work it to their advantage. Sad world in so many ways.
Yeah, we will see what happens.
Fiat currency is used to control people. I think we can pivot when government centralize crypto which I think inevitably will happen. CBDC. I am still hopeful mankind can break free centralized currency.
That is the likely pivot point, as long as the majority are willing to make the shift away from the conditioned state they are in.
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We all know there will be a collapse the question is when I just hope to run with the luck and not be part of that reset a war would be the perfect excuse to disguise a collapse and recover several economies that are dying and although some people do not understand it several patencies would get a good slice of the massive arms sales nothing in this life is free
In a major collapse, the world is going to become exponentially more violent - and it is no picnic now.
So much goes in cycles. Yes, things are falling apart and our financial world will collapse as we know it. It is a matter of time. But we will rebuild. I wonder what freedoms we will retain in the process.
Or I wonder what more we will give up in the hope for security?
I never really liked hedge fund managers. They take a cut of the profits and a lot of them try to take advantage of their clients. Or maybe it's because I watched the Big Short and Wolf of Wallstreet. Not financial advice, but I think you should just research high yield dividend stocks, find those that pay out good amounts consistently [those that paid out even during the pandemic could be good], look for the ones that are low, and buy them.
I don't know much about hedge funds at all, and I am pretty sure they are all sharks. This one was quite an interesting shark though, highly religious, and even a bishop :D
Wait what? Is he a Catholic bishop? How can his morals take being a shark? Maybe he's a unicorn and a legit fund manager that cares about his clients? The contrast is killing me haha.
I like your thinking here. I really wish as a society we valued wellbeing of all and quality experiences over money. I don't think it's even that far-fetched. Capitalism, Communism, Socialism, etc are all just economic theories... there is infinite ways to execute on any or all of them - I absolutely think we could build a society that values way more important things than capital.
We admire hoarders of wealth but we could just as easily admire incredible teachers or something else. There is a reason why so many media outlets are owned by billionaires... and this is probably the first thing I would change if I could.
I do too, but it is just unlikely until people have suffered enough that they would shift away from what they have been programmed to support.
We don't have good rolemodels anymore. People look up to those who are famous, wealthy, have global recognition - but the real heroes are acting locally in the community - unknown.
Yeah, unfortunately there are so many businesses that are extremely dependent on that programming.
As a thought experiment... I'm sure we could change the culture a bit if, say, advertising was illegal. It's wild that in Australia medical advertising is not allowed, but in the US it is... and all the commercials for drugs are constant and horrifying here. If there was no advertising would people lust after material possessions so much? Or is the problem much deeper than programming? Do people ultimately feel unsatisfied and that leaves a gap for products/services to fill?
I sure hope that is not what happens, but I am afraid everything points to you being correct. We are in for a big bang of a surprise one day when we wake up.
The crazy is going to get pretty extreme after the events of yesterday.
It seems cooler heads are trying to prevail, but like you said, the extremes are already acting a fool and saying stuff to amp up the stupidity.
It is natural that the cycle closes. Decimate the population to the point of equilibrium. The consequences of actions related to the economy, taken by a minuscule number of people in relation to the world's population, are overflowing the camel's back. Nature itself will end up submerging the human being and as always, those who hold power will emerge victorious, the rest of us will inevitably sink into the mud.
The drop to a billion people has been seen as a conspiracy, but the world is a current tinderbox and getting more flammable by the moment.
Greetings for today. How are you brother.
Centralization will cause things to fail at some point, but I also wonder if they will move towards decentralization or not. I feel like the system will just destroy the old one and replace it with a newer system. I have a feeling the people in charge won't want to give up any power.
As far ass history is concerned, we will just rebuild what has already proven not to work. Even in those disaster shows, they rebuild what was there before.
If the society or government could do anything for money, people will do it
A lot of people even value wellbeing and all over money
That’s the world we now live in
Yeh I'd rather not.
Some days I think we're doing decently building out the system that everyone is going to switch to either through natural gravitation or by force.
Other days I figure we're all doomed which leads to getting mad and redirecting some energy into pushing point 1, because trying and failing will always be better than not even making an attempt.
I oscillate between hope and doom also. I suspect doom, but still have hope for hope.
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I’m just scared of what will happen if the world economy falls
It’s looking like it may happen very soon
Time to go where the fruit is sweetest and remote as possible from military power. That's my bet! Just so long as the WiFi is good enough for me to get my Splinterlands battles in ;-)