Holy cheese! What a time to be alive.

Just as we're about to enjoy life after the pandemic: kabooooosh. Can we even have a moment to breath fresh air? All I can do from the depths of southern Brazil is pray for the folks in Ukraine and Russia; those who have nothing to do with this nonsense geopolitical madness. Then comes preparations for the near future.

An overview of whats coming

Photo by Bermix Studio on Unsplash

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As much as I try to live a self-sufficient, decentralized life — and encourage the practice along with other values —, I can't completely escape the absolute inflationary bomb that's coming our way. How's the war going to impact our sustenance?

The globalized free-markets are a living organism. What happens in eastern Europe echoes across the globe. And those who pay the bill are the common folk, as always.

Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are the biggest fertilizer suppliers in the world. Sales are suspended after the sanctions . In addition, Lithuania has closed its borders, thereby halting logistical access.

Wheat and corn prices also soared. Russia is the fourth largest wheat producer in the world and the largest exporter. Ukraine is the seventh largest producer and is among the top four in shipments. Together, the two countries account for 30% of wheat exports. 23% of the fertilizers used in Brazil come from Russia.

Keep in mind that Brazil is a commodity country. We [Brazilians] are also highly dependent on oil, since the majority of our production travels on trucks. So, if we had 10.06% inflation in 2021, we're about to repeat the dose.

Real time impact: The corn we use to feed the chicken at the ranch has already jumped from R$90 to R$110. Thus, the eggs at the supermarket jumped from R$19 per 30un. to R$23. I can't wait for our chicken to start laying eggs.

Everything is gonna be more expensive!

I wonder what the hell the central banks are going to do. I bet the FED will have the guts to raise rates at this point.

Suddenly, having land and Bitcoin indeed sound like the best preparation at this time.

Bitcoin analysis

In my last analysis Bitcoin had broken the mid-channel resistance to retrace back to the 30k range the following week. Then, a huge green candle brought it back up. Nothing much happened since then; it still needs to break the resistance with reasonable volume to keep on going towards 50k. Given what's going on around the world, I do believe this is a huge accumulation pattern that may lead Bitcoin to 150k.

^{Bitcoin weekly chart}

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There has been decent buying volume defending the 30k-ish range as seen below which indicates a reversion. It's a matter o time 'till it breaks the mid-channel resistance.

^{Bitcoin daily chart}

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Fundamentals

The Russia-Ukraine war is a major geopolitical event and the first real test to Bitcoin in a financial chaos. I believe people (those who just want to live life away from politics) will soon discover that Bitcoin is the only asset capable giving their financial freedom back. Not only that. Bitcoin being scarce, decentralized, and relatively anonymous is a great tool to avoid financing the State — the real trouble-maker. Policy makers know that and will make everything to prevent us from following the financial freedom path.

End note to Ukrainians

I believe buying Bitcoin is the last of the preoccupations for Ukrainians when bombs are literally dropping on their homes. I'm praying for this madness to end and hopping they get their freedom back soon. Nothing can be worst then the horrors of war.

Have my prayers.

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