Case For A Hundred Dollar Hive
You must be thinking - "You are dreaming or you are delusional". I sure don't think I am delusional, but I do like to dream. Dreaming is healthy. Many big achievement became realities due to dreaming big and creative imaginations. $100 Hive price would only make it a $37-40 billion dollar network. By comparison, WhatsApp was sold for $19 billion dollars. Obviously, Hive is not for sale. It doesn't belong to one group or entity. It is a decentralized network that many can benefit from but nobody can take full control over. Which is much much more valuable.
Before I start making a case for $100 Hive, let's walk backwards from this price point. If today Hive price were to be $100, each of the top 20 witnesses would be making almost 1 million dollars a month. Backup witnesses would see significant increase in witness rewards as well. Being a Hive witness consensus or backup would become very competitive. This would make Hive even stronger, more resilient and more decentralized. This price point would also provide decent amount of resources for witnesses and make Hive scale even better.
By the point of reaching this price point, the distribution of Hive coins would be more decentralized too, just because many would take profits at some point before getting to $100. This wider distribution of coins will make even smaller stakes matter and worth competing for their votes. Participation in governance would increase and be more decentralized.
If the amount Hive coins in Hive Decentralized Fund remain same by the time Hive is at $100, it will have $6 billion dollars to fund all kinds of developments. And it will continue replenishing itself with funds from the inflation. This amount will be very attractive for many developers and competitive to get proposals approved. There would be many projects to choose from and most will demonstrate great skill sets, experience and past projects to showcase in order to win community approval.
At this point, curation and author rewards will be in billions annually. But by this time there probably won't be a need for content rewards in native Hive coins and content rewards will shift to community and app based tokens, which will also see massive increases due to Hive's success. All of them will compete against each other in proving the best experience, economy to its participants. But also, all of them will learn from each other's experience and perhaps even cooperate in certain goals and ambitions.
Now let's see how we can get there. Hive being an open network and multi-purpose blockchain with many unique features that many other blockchain efforts haven't been able to replicate yet, there are many paths that lead Hive to $100 price target. One of them is through HBD as a stable coin and as a fixed income asset. Taskmaster4450 wrote a very interesting post yesterday on this topic - HBD Savings: A Simple Exercise In Wealth Building, where he explains in details how compounding 12% annual interest would create enormous amount of wealth over a longer period time. This strategy might not be attractive for those who are used to seeing 10x returns in a year or two in crypto. However, it would be of great interest for investment fund managers who utilize these kind of strategies all the time, at least for diversification purposes.
12% annual interest rate on a stable coin that is pegged to USD, one of the strongest fiats in the world and the world reserve currency is not a small thing. Now consider I am an investment fund manager with $10 billion dollars under my control, and I want to allocate 10% of my funds to very low risk but high return asset like receiving 12% compounding interest annually. That means I have $1 billion dollars to invest in HBD. But the entire Hive network is billion dollars worth and it only has $24 million HBDs in circulating supply. Where am I going to get $1 billion dollars worth of HBD.
I know the secret that nobody knows, I can buy as many Hive coins as I want or are available in the market and immediately convert them to HBDs. Of course this would require a certain strategy, not to move the Hive prices too high too quick. Since I am only interested in HBD, what price I buy Hive doesn't matter. I will be converting every purchased Hive into HBD. So each USD worth of investment will retain its value in HBD. In fact, if planned my strategy properly I will end up buying my initial HBDs at lower prices and make quick profits from the beginning.
By the time I get to the point of spending all of $1 billion to buy Hive and convert to HBD, price of Hive will go so high that its market cap will be in tens of billions of dollars already. Once my colleagues get the word of what I am doing, they will find out this is a good strategy for them as well. They will allocate some of their funds too. And soon enough one Hive coin will be worth $100 and perhaps keep goin up higher, because many more fund managers would to be in action as well.
When it comes to taxes, HBD is not recognized as a currency, it is a property and an asset. So any profits from HBD would be taxed. However, since most likely each HBD purchase will cost $1 and liquidating them at the same $1 would mean there were no profits from trading them. Ok, yes there may be a tiny bit of profit or loss, but nothing major and can easily be managed. The 12% annual interest though will be fully taxed, just like any other capital gains income. As a fund manager I am ok with that, because I would pay these taxes if I invested elsewhere too.
Khaleelkazi and Associate have been talking about HBD and its benefits as of late too. They have interesting ideas regarding HBD. Watch HBD is Starting to Become an Attractive Algorithmic Stablecoin from yesterday to hear some interesting opinions about HBD. They also mentioned another stable coin that is offering 20% interest. I don't know much about it, but it does look like there is a competition for HBD. HBD paying out 20% is highly unlikely in my opinion. But wow if that happens, $100 Hive may come even sooner.
Let's look at another path that may lead Hive to $100. Hive has awesome tools for community building. We need to understand couple things here. Just because we are in a decentralized space, doesn't mean communities must be decentralized as well. No, communities can choose whatever structure they like. In the beginning the most efficient way is to take centralized model that turns into decentralized as it scales. It is up to the community builders and communities themselves to decide what works best for them.
But at the same time, if these communities are going to tap into Hive reward system, they may need to consider the bigger Hive community's vision and how they can offer value back as well. Cooperation is the best way, and it is most advantageous for these communities too.
One of Hive's unique features is that it is a giving network. While hundreds of blockchains and layer-2 projects on other blockchains trying to sell their coins/tokens, Hive is offering its native coins to all global talents. Of course these Hive coins aren't just given out for free, they are distributed using proof of brain methodology in return for value all participants bring into the table. Often it is just for doing ordinary things people already do elsewhere for free.
So do we build a successful community that can take Hive price to $100. It can be any kind of community. For this example let's say I want to build a community for those who are interested in Movies & TV. Something like CineTV. Before I start building this community and bringing like minded people onboard, let me tell you about two network laws to help me make my point clearer.
First, Metcalfe's Law:
Metcalfe's law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n^2).
Within the context of social networks, many, including Metcalfe himself, have proposed modified models in which the value of the network grows as n log n rather than n^2.
In other words, it describes exponential growth of the network by each addition of participant. To simplify, I view it as value the each participant brings to the network, because the growth is not linear.
Second, Beckstrom's Law:
Beckstrom's Law states in summary that "The value of a network equals the net value added to each user’s transactions conducted through that network, summed over all users."
The value of the entire network is the summary of the value to all users, who are defined as all parties doing transactions on that network.
This focuses more on the value participants get by participating in the network. I used think of these two laws separately. But it started making sense more once these two concepts are combined. As more people see value in participating in the network and they do get actual value by doing so, they also bring value to the network. Hence, network grows continuously benefiting both the network itself and the individual participants.
Back to the Movies & TV community. I chose this as an example, because I think many people like movies and tv shows. Digital streaming platforms are on the rise. Netflix was the pioneer in the space, but now there are many like Hulu, Disney+, HBO+, Showtime, Applet TV+, AMC, Paramount+, Amazon Prime Videos, etc. Why so many pluses? More and more people are turning away from cable tv and just going with individual subscriptions to streaming services that they can cancel anytime and rejoin anytime. They bring more convenience. But there are so many of them too now.
A couple of weeks ago, I wanted to watch the new Matrix movie. It was available on HBO+. I didn't have a subscription. If I were to subscribe it would only be to watch this movie, then I would have to cancel. I had a brilliant idea. Why don't I subscribe, write a post about the movie and Hive will pay for my subscription. The post ended up trending and now those rewards will pay for the full year of HBO+ subscriptions.
So for my community there are hundreds of millions potential members globally. I just need to build a team of likeminded people to get it started. The community will have rules and roles. Anybody can move up to various roles based on their interest and participation. One of the benefits and value this community will provide to its members is pay for their streaming subscription of a choice or even multiple of them eventually. Just like hive participation and proof of brain methodologies would apply. But it would be much simpler. Nobody will be expected to become movie reviewers or bloggers. They can if they want to, but they can contribute in other ways as well.
How will the community pay for these subscriptions? Hive will pay. lol. Initial group of members will have to sacrifice some time and efforts and dedicate portion of their rewards to the community as beneficiaries, and decide how and what to do based on community rules and overall consensus. As more members join they will also contribute with their works and beneficiaries. After all this community is not about getting rich, but to enjoy all things Movies & TV. This will require establishing relationships with the overall Hive community, curation teams, tribes like CineTV, etc. While it would start small with helping people getting their streaming services paid, as it grows the power and abilities of the community would grow as well to support even more who enjoy movies and tv shows.
How is this going to get Hive to $100. Price number is in participant base growth. They way this community will pay back the value is by its numbers. While many will join for movies, some will discover other beautiful things about Hive too. One of the metrics investors use for any social network is its user-base, I like to call participant base, since we are a decentralized network and all are owners. Success of one community will translate in success of other communities as well. Those who came for one community, may find other communities interesting. And when one community sees certain models and economic structures working well in other communities they would implement the same or even improve on.
I do see huge potential in communities and community building on Hive. Not just for rewards and getting rich. No. Just for doing thing people already enjoy doing. One of the frustrating things for any new person to Hive can be that, they may feel like they are not really enjoying what they are doing. They see no value there, so they leave. Lose/lose. But when you do things that you already enjoy doing and would be doing else where anyway, that is where the winners will be born on Hive. It has already been happening from the start.
You all could have been anywhere else, but you chose to be here. This is true success and step by step it will grow into something much bigger. Would I participate in building this community. Probably not. I am not greatly into movies and tv. I do enjoy them. I would be a member, but probably not the active one due to other commitments and obligations. I hope I was able to present the case with communities. If not, I will try to do a better job next time.
Another path and really powerful one is the Apps and Games. We already see this happening. Look at Splinterlands. Now Ragnarok coming, more games already available and many more being developed. Apps are being built on Hive. It will take one or two killer apps to take us to $100, for one due to the participant growth, and second demand and interest for Hive itself. Speak network is even going beyond just apps. They are planning to create a network on top of a network with great utilities and economic incentives in place. Just amazing. I was planning to talk about this in more details. Since this post already got too long, you probably stopped reading, I will postpone my thoughts on this path for the next time.
What are your thoughts? Do you think Hive at $100 is possible? What will take us there? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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Think big or don't think at all.
Not thinking is difficult. Is it even possible?
Corvettes and then sometimes it rains but I didn't see any fireworks during the assembly. Forty days late. The chickens don't chick. What's up with that?
Does that answer your question?
Too tired to think. lol
When I played hockey, we were down five goals going in to the third period. Coach wasn't happy and he said, "Think big or don't think at all," before we hit the ice. And that's all he said for the rest of the game.
We scored three goals in under two minutes. Then about ten minutes later we scored another three in under two minutes. All the hits were hard. All the skating was fast.
It just seemed to click with everyone. It's all about staying focused hard enough to drown out the noise.
So, to make a long story short, any time I feel like doing something with my life, I apply that thinking big stuff, then do the work.
Can't just sit around, hoping and moping.
Ahhhh the good old "Let's hit the with the Flying V this period."
It's not like the movies, man. LOL!
But I was like, Emilio!! ...Ahhh, I was hoping for a Hansen Brothers hockey tale. What a classic.
You played sports. You know how it is. I probably have 100 stories that sound like the movies now that I think about it.
Wait what?
What weight?
Weight where?
Wait there.
There when?
When else?
you know what? u won
You one.
What does Chinese currency have to do with this?
Twelve?
十二
Fancy.
nice eh?
Canadian eh?
Western Canadian eh
Northern Canadian ah
Great White north eh
Dave. It's good to see you. But we can't keep doing this, man. People are going to think we're weird. They'll judge us accordingly. Some might even blow a fuse. We simply can't have that. Especially in this economy. Could send ripples throughout the whole thing. They'll blame us and then what? Our lives are ruined. And we'll get fed to the polar bears because they have to eat too, you know.
Understood boss.
Alright then.
Haven't seen this man in ages..maybe he's frozen.
Frozen in time.
They mastered the art of not thinking in the US Congress so yes it is possible.
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The possibility of a 100$ hive is astounding! Don’t wake me up from this dream. It’s too sweet.
But for real though, I wonder if there’s any downsides from having Hive worth $100.
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There is a downside. By then we probably will have all our Hive coins sold and won’t be able to buy back.
Lol certainly.
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Yes ! Getting enough Ressource credits to make posts, comment and so some additional action on the blockchain will start to be really expensive. The RC delegation would really be needed for that moment !
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Yeah....RC delegations will handle all that. Love it.
Hive reaching that amount would see so many people here billionaire and millionaire, I can't wait to witness such.
$100 Hive would be amazing. I dream of the day but maybe I should just be looking forward to the day.
Interesting read. The HBD strategy makes a lot of sense. I wouldn't have thought $100 Hive would be possible until you laid it out.
Thank you @leaky20. I am glad it made sense to you. I wasn't sure if I was able to explain it right.
You explained it very well.
$ 10 I could imagine this cycle. if the network gets more and more popular over the next few years we might see $ 100, but that's still a long way to go
At least there is a way. Fun part is in the journey not the destination.
Great article Pete!
Who is Pete? Thank you. I write the bestest articles. Please subscribe to the premium membership for double bestest content.
Didn't I get a premium membership airdrop? I'm pretty sure I invested (my time) in you prior to the snapshot.
Wow....just came back to life after a dream run through ..i think no body assumed Hive $1 when it was forked... but it did passed through....not only this..it sustain at same level for well over period now....so assuming all the development and community backs...$100 is achievable...games like splinterlanf which is already a great success and now ragnorak and web 3 based spknetwork ...surely will.pull.more audience and investor...the popularity of Hive depends on success of each of these new dapps and their performance...so moving together one steps at a time surely make it grow more than what we ever dream.
The way you outlined these strategies made me think it is indeed possible. I mean it's going to happen someday anyway, why not sooner?
Very well said
The next bus stop for hive price now is $100 next
That's a wet dream 🙂
Reminds me of someone explaining how CUB would get to $100 during the first IDO, because every single piece of CUB would be bought from the market and burned 😀
Btw communities are good but unpredictable and for this reason it is not low risk to put $1 million in HBD. Ask Justin Sun 😉
It could definitely happen but not without a lot more development.
Communities are a big part of it but we have not developed them to a high enough level yet. Until we have community building tools that will allow the regular user to create, run, moderate, set ads, onboard easily we have a long way to go. I do hope to see it someday but it's in the distance.
The same with the games and apps.
At the moment every new app or community is drawing from the same pool of hive users rather than bringing in new people. Splinterlands and Leo are the only two exceptions to this so far.
Every new app should strive to be as simple as possible for new users to sign up and then we will start to see some of the network effect take place between our ecosystem and add more value to the price.
We already have community building tools on Hive. That was my point. We just needed dedicated community builders. Splinterlands and LeoFinance are more than communities, they have gone beyond building communities. They have created their own economies and apps. They have reached the point that they will thrive without relying on any of the Hive rewards.
Community building doesn't necessarily mean building apps and tools. Everything needed for building communities is available now. However, some people confuse the concept of bringing like-minded people together and engage on things they are interested in with building communities to earn rewards. Rewards are just a tool to help in these efforts. They should never be the goal.
While it may be possible, I think we have tapped into most of the blog for rewards so we need to rely on more applications. In fact we would probably need quite a few more Splinterlands to increase the transactions on the network.
I don't think there will be many people converting HIVE into HBD because of the 5% tax. If they did then that would mean HBD would be way off peg and it wouldn't be a stable coin anymore.
Also what do you mean by people not caring about HIVE as content rewards? I still think HIVE and HP is still needed for the network unless people get resource credits paid for them by someone else.
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When you will be converting significantly high amounts of HBD, that 5% will become irrelevant. Because as you keep buying hive, the hive you bought earlier will have greater value in HBD. So it balances itself out and also be profitable.
What I mean about content rewards paid by Hive is that when network has grown to a certain point, layer two content rewards will be more interesting and communities will become self-sustaining. There will be no need for Hive content rewards. Hive will be needed to power layer to applications, communities, and economies and mainly used for RC purposes.
I didn't know about this tax for conversion ! But 5% tax on a 12% apy token isn't really hard :')
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The 5% conversion means that it might be cheaper to buy HBD off an exchange rather than trying to buy HIVE and paying an extra 5% fee.
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Yeah ! I just looked at how to convert hive to HBD and I just learned that it only converts half of the amount !
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Yea it doesn't convert everything but I am not particularly sure because I only did that once when the peg was further up.
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With that price the minimum HIVE transfer amount would be $0.10 worth, unless there will be more than 3 decimals. Only way to send micro-transfers on the network is through HBD if it stays at the $1 peg which should put it in the top 100 coins by market cap in today's rankings (that is if debt ratio stays the same).
Just like you said, that's the purpose of the HBD. It was always meant to be used for micro-transfers. I wouldn't mind seeing Hive minimum transfer amount at $0.10. :)
Maybe some Forks could get somme updates to add more decimals to HIVE and making it possible ! That's true that it would be a mess it is impossible.
Is that really impossible to have less than 0.001 ?
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Definitely possible, and with all the things about to come we should make it to $10 at least. I think 100$ is for the next bull run ;)
https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-update-on-hive-r5ca7v
You are definitely a glass half full person and that's a good thing. I usually am too, but want to bring up some loose counterpoints. First, could you elaborate a bit on the time horizon you're thinking, or is it open-ended that this could be in a decade?
Countless new onramps would be needed. I personally struggle to get Hive to buy Punks and Splinterlands stuff and I've been here since mid-2017. It's legitimately something I dread doing.
Also, while games can be a catalyst, and Splinterlands is amazing for being the best thing HIVE can showcase IMO, I think that more immersive metaverse games/worlds will be hard to compete with, as compared to new card battling games like Ragnarok. Like Hive Punks were all the rage on Hive for a few weeks, they've gotten stuck in concrete since. Ragnarok may be a hit with Hivers, especially since they're get their airdropped assets, but I just don't see it having a strong pull vs more dynamic and ETH-based games these days where NFTs are easier to see and obtain. I'm also confused because there already seems to be a blockchain game called Ragnarok that's built and playable: https://blockchain-ro.com/.
With an inflationary supply, we'd need quite an exorbitant flood of demand to fight the sell pressure to reach such a token price. Nothing's impossible, but I really think that HIVE's lack of interoperability and framework will make such exponential growth extremely difficult. I feel that beyond the Web 3.0 trend, blockchains that are build on the same framework that can be interoperable will ultimately grow and consume more of those who aren't, and best survive/thrive. I think that HIVE has sort of isolated itself in trying to be a best-in-breed, and it's potentially shot itself in the foot.
On the 12% HBD rate, I think defi offers way more simple ways to get that yield or better outside of HIVE where large investors would be far more likely to play and trust. For example, UST can get 19-20% with far fewer hoops to go through. A large investor may also see that HBD can spike and drop way beyond 1%, quite alarming for them, which ultimately means that better mechanics for more stability are needed before we can expect that to be a strong selling point.
As for a killer app, I wish I had developer skills, but I don't. I think that SPL is our best shot at that app versus a new one being developed in the future. I just don't sense enough global awareness and demand to come over to Hive, especially as the devs haven't brought many to the community over all these years of Steem/Hive. I think getting a swarm of new devs is step 1. The current devs have been focused on improving Hive, and perhaps just not as much on innovating major apps to drive such widespread growth as we'd hope for to get us to even $20.
Nice post. Just being respectfully on the other side for a few.
While I am not making any price predictions, I am thinking in near future terms like 1-3 years. I didn't know about another Ragnarok game, I will take a look.
To respond for your other points (really good ones), let me ask you a question. Last year today when Hive was trading at around $0.11-$0.13 would you have thought its price would go to as high as $3 within a year? That's about 25x. Same concerns were back then, and probably even more. But things are moving fast and just this years development and price action do provide optimism. Hence, I am simply reflecting on possibilities. :)
It is always good to keep healthy skepticism and making rational decisions when investing. Great points. Thank you.
Estamos en mundo diferente y podría pasar amigo
It's astounding to think that having fun with content creation here on Hive could one day sat me up for life. The reason why I haven't sold any HIVE yet even though we've seen several price increases in my time here is because I still see a huge potential. It was awesome to see HIVE reach $1+ but I felt surprisingly little and that just tells me how much I believe in this platform.
You know once we get to $100 it won't stop there right? lol There will be some tough decisions to make regarding selling or keeping Hive along the way.
$100 is just a stepping stone. My stance in crypto since the beginning has been that I won't sell anything until it's life changing money. At this point it would be convenient but not life changing.
I think Hive starts to get interesting far before $100 that once we get over a certain threshold we could see quite a leap. At a certain price point, we could see even the weakest hands holding a higher percentage of what they get as they see the value of their RC, curation, and APR become worth more to how much they can earn within the ecosystem vs what they want/need.
I was telling a friend the other day at around $15.38 Hive my current curation rewards + HP APR would be greater than my cost of living. Naturally with the current cost of living inflation and the Hive deflation slowly happening over the long run that price will need to be higher and higher over the long run. For many, I doubt they need such a high price if they have been building at the lower Hive prices. So $100 Hive would just be insane.
I’ve had some rather interesting talks with people in the past about what if Hive price suddenly increases enough to give us the market cap of one of the bigger blockchains that they are always telling me I am missing out by not getting into. I suddenly could start making millions a year on Hive while elsewhere only a further price increase would increase my investment.
As far as games there is just not enough in development at least that is being talked about. Between 2021 Q4 and 2022 Q1 I suspect around a dozen game development projects have shut down, stopped for an undisclosed amount of time, or gone elsewhere.
The good news is they don’t even have to be Hive blockchain games to generate a net positive impact. Just hundreds of games that have small to medium size player base that visits their blogs on Hive for updates and gamers sharing their experience about the game would start getting more people in the door. Once their player bases are here they could take a look around into what else is in the ecosystem.
A lot of crypto projects just don’t want to have a blockchain blog for whatever reason unless it’s already on the blockchain they are using. It’s always so strange seeing so many blockchain games choosing centralized non-blockchain platforms that could shut them down at any moment. Once Hive hits a certain threshold and those centralized sites start banning at higher rates than they already are it would be stupid for them not to be here.
I was hoping once Steam made a stance against blockchain games and people were talking about it that more projects would seek out a decentralized place for their patch notes, and content. That ended up not being the case as far as I can tell.
A lot of non-blockchain gamers also hated the current blockchain environment. There have been some major pushbacks on the triple A side of things when it comes to how game studios have been trying to implement "NFTs." It’s just seen as scam, greedy, low quality, and burdensome by many.
There is a long way for the blockchain space to grow on the gaming side. It also adds further development time, cost, and other barriers to entry to even get in over standard non-blockchain projects. Even blockchains that are 100% focused on gaming have struggled to roll out easy of use and resources for the major game engines. Even once they do there is a major lack of education being done in the industry.
In my eyes we start seeing massive gains once we can no longer call out a couple of projects as being the major reason for growth. Far too many top 50 blockchains have just a couple of projects doing most of the lifting. They won't hold a candle to all our active communities alone. We are just not there yet in terms of mass.
The Gods On Chain Hive community is a prime example of this. The same goes for the Axie Buzz community and surely so many more to come after that.
That's they thing, how many will still hold their Hive on the way to $100? I would guess there will be decent amount of selling and Hive will become more distributed. I agree withe everything you said about gaming on Hive. It is always great to hear the thoughts of the top gaming expert of Hive.
Depending on how long it takes to get to $100 I wonder how many will still be the original account owner/still going solo. Just from the content side of things alone, some interesting things could take place if it ends up taking over a decade.
Taking a look at an older YouTube channel like Ashens who has been there for 15 years doing well but never really took off as a bunch of other OGs did. He never really changed either from what I can tell and it still feels like a one-person channel.
Then you have the Ray William Johnson of the world that made it and tried to sell/get someone else to do the work. My god, the Ray channel is now just tick tock shorts by someone who looks like a drugged-out Johnson. Pulls insane amounts of views in per short clip.
At some point at the very least as the price increases, more and more people are going to start having others help with their account's day to day. The hierarchy key system is perfect for that and already solves what a lot of centralized platforms still lack a proper system for. Another area Hive shines and was ahead of its time on.
I personally think hives price will be limited by its utility, if it were to reach $100 or even $50 that would mean that even to be able to play splinterlands with very few rentals etc would require at least a few hundred dollars and being active on the blockchain playing games and posting would cost thousands just to have the hive power. This would then exclude many from being able to sign up and drive down prices due to lack of uptake. I certainly think 5-10 dollars is possible but these big numbers would kill off hive for everyone but the existing members.
Those technicalities can be adjusted as network scales up, and low stakes participants will still have similar experiences as today. Those requirements, RC costs, etc can be adjusted and also many apps and communities will become strong enough themselves to provide necessary delegations for players and participants. In the future hardforks there will be a Resource Credit delegation option, which will solve some of these things.
Yeah there will no doubt be workarounds but in the current format prices that high would not be a good thing for anyone but current holders who would also need to find a buyer to actually earn that much. No one will pay 100 or even 50 for 1hp and the RC's that provides.
But it would be nice haha
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A Hive at 100$ would be very interesting. How would the Hive Power system work? Since it would be much more complicated to get it, I think it would be impossible for new users to create an account and expect to do a lot of actions on chain.
Maybe delegations will become as coveted as scholarships were in Axie Infinity? It would be interesting to see how the chain would work by that time :P
I believe Howo has been working on Resource Credit delegations. Once it is ready it will be implemented in the new hard fork and should solve some of these issues. You won't need to delegate Hive Power to players or participants, but instead just delegate Resource Credits so they can easily interact with the blockchain. This will make it a lot cheaper to be on Hive. You won't need to buy Hive and build Hive Power, you will just get free RC delegation from apps or communities or lease them for small fee.
This is so interesting having you propose hive at $100. It is possible just as you have said.
Creating content and curation is one of the first thing that should come into play. Imagine spending time and resources to create (build ) a content without being curated.
Mehnnnn, it's always frustrating for contents that needs finances to build another reasonable one.
Also, saving one's token is another stand of making hive a treasure to many, that's why it's not always good to sell all the rewards one gathers.
Even prior to my “accidental” landing on Hive through Splinterlands, I have been hearing a lot about decentralization and community ownership of certain property or shares. The problem in the existing system is that we don’t see any concrete mechanism to implement those ideals. They appear to me that their proponents just want to transfer the control over the property of the hated class to their own possession using the legal system to achieve that. In that case, that will involve force. But here on Hive, such use of force is irrelevant for the action of every participant is voluntary.
You mentioned a lot of points contributing to Hive’s value. I also read somewhere that Hive has already been doing things that other blockchains are still aiming to achieve. As for HBD, this one is still challenging for me to digest. Thanks anyway for bringing the two articles by @taskmaster4450 and @khaleelkazi to my attention. I think I need to really pay attention to what this HBD can really do to boost Hive’s value. It’s also great to know the relevance of the two network laws you mentioned. So, with all these elements: decentralization, community ownership, HBD, tools for community building, Hive as a giving network, apps, games, and above all the benefits to all users, the communities, and to Hive network as a whole resulting from the increase in number of users and users finding value on Hive by simply participating, these to me are concrete proofs that Hive is extremely undervalued as of now. No one knows what would be the price of Hive 5 to 10 years from now. I think no one also anticipated that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top names out there would reach their current price.
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You know at first I thought it was a bit outlandish but long term this can be true but yeah certain metrics would need to be put into the infrastructure to scale in institutional investors.
Hive has so many great things and projects developing and constantly being added to. I actually think next year a $4-$5 hive is possible and once more and more of mainstream media hits it, then it can quickly turn into 10. It really depends on the direction it takes and if they continue to try to take progressive action in providing end value for hive, i.e. the buildout to physical content, an immersive metaverse in VR that can capture market share, Splinterlands blasting off due to its foot in mobile games, ragnarok, or any of the other great projects developing on layer 2 to bring more mainstream awareness.
Step 1: gain more crypto community awareness
Step 2: layer 2 continue to buildout utility function
Step 3: MAINSTREAM ability to adopt CRYPTO as a whole and awareness onto this platform.
I can't wait. Also getting influencers involved that have active centralized social medias to engage that is why I believe things like posh is such a great thing also.
I love this. There are so many paths that would enable Hive to grow to massive levels of users and value.
This is my current situation. I genuinely love creating all of my posts and don’t see myself wanting to stop doing what I do.
I think it is going to be a combination of increasing the size of the HIVE network and the financialization of HBD. With more people competing to earn HIVE, the price should naturally increase. But, as people look for places to stash money where it can't be frozen by government, we should see an influx of value that will also eat up HIVE to convert to HBD.
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This is indeed an awesome dream that can become reality.
It is strange to see how Hive can achieve all this with no hype.
A little hype and dream can get us there with action.
Can the blockchain handle Hive at $100?
!BEER
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Hive was born to handle ones and zeros, I am sure it will manage with $100.
Think big and think different.
View or trade
BEER.Hey @geekgirl, here is a little bit of
BEERfrom @pouchon for you. Enjoy it!Do you want to win SOME BEER together with your friends and draw the
BEERKING.View or trade
BEER.Hey @geekgirl, here is a little bit of
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BEER.This idea gets floated every once in a while. Each time, I hate it even more.
New people getting into crypto will inevitably be needing information, and Hive being purpose-built for content creation (even more specifically, Leo Finance) is aptly conducive for learning about crypto.
I think that will be one of Hive's many advantages over other blockchains.
I just wonder how the comments section will be like when there is ultra-massive adoption of Hive, driving the price to $100; it should be pretty crowded!
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Comments is in Hive's DNA. All posts and comments are stored in a special container called comments. It was made for massive amounts of comments. I think it will be great.
The community has come a long way, with ups and downs. Russian proverb says: "For one beaten, two unbeaten give."
Personally, I fully admit the price of our token is $ 100.
Awesome thoughts you pooled here. While I've been thinking of a $10 Hive, I never knew someone had scaled farther to a $100 Hive. ZIt is possible. All we need is increase in participating numbers in communities and things get better on the long run.
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First we need surpass 10 bucks to think about 100$ :D
Yes ! a $10 HIVE would already be insane !
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That's exactly why we need HivePay on the streaming platforms !!
Looks like you post worked, someone played with Cine Price today ! !PIZZA
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lol Nice. What's the price of Cine?
IT changed a lot toaday, from $0.03 to $0.25 but it's smaller now, I don't really know because it changes fast, it should be around $0.08
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PIZZA Holders sent $PIZZA tips in this post's comments:
@pompeylad(1/5) tipped @geekgirl (x1)
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Please vote for pizza.witness!
I wish a shark or a big whale would read this LOL.
Berpikir terus sampai dapat untuk membuktikan ke masyarakat luas
it's an ole saying keep an open mind but not so open your brain falls out, lol.. So You're correct i believe in saying it would have to be brought on by some second layer application. Hive ecosystem at the present time is not designed to do anything like that.
To have that type of value and growth. The way the price of a coin goes up is by people hodling and denying short term gratification. Which is why we recently in our latest post adapted bbd coins to become the first certificates of deposit on the hive chain.
A forced yearly hodl to gain a token increase of 600% per anum. That's the only way that occurs. As well as the token being deflationary. Inflation seldom will work in this space it's only about 2-3% of people in crypto and the growth just can't keep up with the ridiculous interest rates most projects try to return and then crash.
Best way to get close is in my latest post here https://leofinance.io/@mykos/bbd-coin-first-certificate-of-deposit-on-hive-blockchain
although i don't think $100 is ever possible as the big hive holders would go on an inflationary selling spree however i could see some ath never hit before and a much more valuable blockchain.
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I think anything is possible.
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One orientation I learnt on Crypto currency is all about patience. With patience Hive can get to the level. The problem you have to ask yourself,do you have the time and patience to wait for it to get there.
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A peg to something alternative might work better than a peg to any FIAT.
When I saw the title of your post, I first thought of this. I think even 1000 HP stake would be enough for some HIVE income.
Basic question, How does one convert Bitcoin back to fiat , I have Coinbase, Great Article, My time on chain has never left the ecosystem, I keep re-investing my Hive profit into other tokens on the Leo/Dex. I'm saving for retirement lol, but I don't know how to convert hive back to USD because I never tried, I can convert hive to Bitcoin than Bitcoin to cash? Great Article, now I understand how Hive will go parabolic! I thank Splinterlands for a big part of that, if Leo wasn't still depressed, the token hasn't had traction from a 75% devalue? Why doesn't Leo Pop? I'm still buying Leo Miner's believing the Leo Community will make a comeback.
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I haven't cashed out on Hive yet. If I were to sell for fiat, I think I would do the same thing you do, convert to btc, send to Coinbase and sell for fiat. I am sure there other ways too, I just haven't tried any other options.
Soon if/when Robinhood implements bitcoin wallets, we might be able to send btc there and sell for fiat commission-free.
It's the last step I need to learn and one that would bring more people to Crypto if you could convert as easy as say sending money on Venmo. Thanks
you are a writer grounded in reality. and if you think a $100 hive could be possible I believe you. And after reading your well thought post that explains in detail and with clear examples, of what can become a reality I´m sure this will happen.
I could really see Hive going above $100. Many people would have laughed at the idea that Hive would remain above 1 dollar and that it would crash back to about half that the way STEEM did. Instead, HIVE is still above a dollar and has been for months, and it is likely that from now on, the average price will never drop below 1 dollar again. I could easily see it going to $10 by the end of 2022, and $100 sometime between 2025 and 2030.
I wanna see a 2k HIVE... with a Market cap of BTC :-)
Here a nice tool, where u can compare marketcaps ;-)
https://www.marketcapof.com/hive/bitcoin
PSH!
Make it $1000.
This heavily implies that the price of Hive is going up because of either decentralized buying or a decentralized mindset of refusing to sell at the current price. I find this highly unlikely. $100 Hive sounds like a couple whales pushing the price up. Sounds like VC money or a whale who built an app here that needs a massive amount of resources for said app.
If 10000 users "take profits" on the way up to $100, and only one person is buying...
That being said I think VCs would be afraid of Hive after what we did to Justin.
Who knows.
Whales will start selling after crossing $10 mark. FOMO will make this buying decentralized. It depends on various situations.
If you take a scenario where few will be buying up to convert to HBD for long term low risk fixed income purposes, then a lot of Hive will be destroyed. Everybody has a price point at which they would sell. Everybody will be selling and everybody will be buying.
One or few people can't afford buying up all. If you are thinking someone with a big commitment to do so, then price would go much higher. Going to $1000. Not happening, for the reasons you stated.
The exception proves the rule, I suppose.
I imagine you're right.
I don't know about you but I plan on acquiring a couple million more Hive.
wow, very ambitious. You are super obsessed with Hive.
Am I? That's just the moderate amount I'll need to create a sustainable business here.
Nothing to see here. Business as usual.
Consumer driven demand for the token could send the price consistently up, at a reasonable/manageable pace.
All you need is a product consumers are interested in and a reason for them to spend money.
Hive produces thousands of products, daily. It's called 'content' and typically, that product generates billions annually, with no signs of ever slowing down.
Unfortunately, on Hive, there's little to no interest in attracting consumers. That attraction isn't dependent on any one individual or group. There are thousands of players who refuse or simply aren't aware their content is a product and that product does not need to sit going stale on our local shelves while producers pretend the front doors are locked.
If people wised up, 'consumers' become the investors. Rather than one or two whales, investing to a peak and then no more, you get millions of consumer investors buying in small with room to buy more down the road.
Typically in the arts/entertainment/information world, when a consumer wants to spend money on that product, they take what they've earned from a job, there's a bit left called 'disposable income' and they burn it on, entertainment, as example.
Here we have a revolutionary support system most don't even recognize or realize has the potential to be incredibly disruptive in the industry.
Here, rather than burning that money or throwing it away for a cheap thrill, the consumer can simply move funds from their bank account to their Hive account, stake, then tip forever (votes are a form of tip, we just call it something else and pretend we're not tipping) at no cost in small amounts over time rather than one lump sum. Perks like rewards come standard and studies show perks often entice consumers into spending more. But this time they're technically not spending any money, yet still contributing to the success of not only their favorite product but also the place where it's found, helping guarantee the future of more down road with no strings attached.
Every onboarding attempt focuses on attracting more content creators. Nobody focuses or even talks about attracting a dedicated consumer base. Anyone new showing up today depends on the current consumer base comprised mainly of content creators. Not enough eyes, not enough ears, can't figure out how to attract investors, yet working feverishly day in and day out keeping those shelves full of product.
Everyone here is sitting on a multi billion dollar goldmine. And it's been like that, for years. I've been talking about it, for years. Content is a product we refuse to sell, and here the consumer can achieve their goal of supporting content without having to actually spend money (they simply transfer their property from one account to another). First time in history. And nobody notices...
Many true statements, and still so much more to be said.
I think we'll get there eventually.
Still way more to say yes indeed. Consumer spillover. How all the products on chain (and not just content) are connected. Millions of naturally occurring entry points. Co-branding comes standard with no added effort provided the path is clear. Yadda yadda yadda. Could go on forever.
pls I want to lrean how to utilize this goldmine of our pls. i have read this comment for over 4 hour ago and i just don't know were to start.
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Where to start? That's easy.
Plant your seeds instead of eating them.
Okay, I will try that although not fully understanding, I will give it a shot.
This is a banger of a post - Just look at that engagement!
I love the idea about creating TV related content about a series you want to watch within a community and then using the HIVE rewards you earn to pay for the subscription.
So much potential in this idea alone.
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Personally I don’t let go easily of my crypto assets on my decentralized multi-coin wallet application from https://atomicwallet.io/, as I see huge confidence in every coin, I keep on the wallet.
OmG.. @geekgirl you ve blown my mind by this. And to say that it is all very very possible and the potentials are massive.
HBD becoming a center of attraction
Hive Communities
Games and other cool Dapps
All these are ground breaking prospects and I do believe $100 will happen earlier than we think.
Thanks..
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STOPCheck out the last post from @hivebuzz:
$100 easily, look how many other crypto coins do nothing. Even ETH wants to be like Hive, Twitter is trying too. Web3.0 is now, they are late to the party but can start a community by all means. Twitter community, Facebook community. They can all have their own Hive neighborhoods. (There are 115.1K members in 1 Star Trek fan group.) If anyone has web2 groups they should try moving them here into their own Community, or invite them to existing communities.
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I think CZ_Binance or Vitalik Buterin could be the missing link to $100 Hive.
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Vitalik does love Hive. It might be conflict of interest for both of them. One has ETH to promote and another BNB.
I have screenshoted this Tweet to show both love Hive and in macro level they both want crypto mass adoption.
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First time i see within the blockchain such a bold talk about HIVE price. Someone commented as “wet dreams” and i agree with it. By this year imho tenth of your wish would be such a huge leap for Hive. Huge jumps mostly ends with huhe falls, i rather choose a steady uprising.
I think 100 dollar hive is also probably rather meant as a hanger, than as a real target value in the foreseeable future. 100 dollars per hive would correspond (as stated in the comments) to a market cap of 40 billion rounded up. I have recently read figures regarding the Reddit IPO's and I think they were ~15 billion targeted evaluation.
If you compare Hive to Reddit at its current level, I think it's well behind. Not only in terms of user numbers, but also in terms of things like barriers to entry, negative PoS impact on new users, ease of use, and more. Of course, you also have to recognize advantages, such as transparency and immutability. But that is not enough in my opinion. Especially for new users, the advantage of Hive is probably often (at least this would also coincide with my experience in r/CC) that you get "free" tokens for your activity.And here I don't see a USP with Hive anymore, as Reddit will integrate this incentive across platforms and other platforms, see HDL - Headline on Algorand also develop corresponding models.
In order for 100 dolar Hive to be feasible, I think it would need..:
And those are probably just a few items on a very long list from my - admittedly humble - perspective on Hive.
In particular, achieving this price target and also one of $50 per Hive, indeed $20 per Hive alone, will involve a long time horizon.
In German there are the proverbs "Was lange gährt wird endlich gut" (What goes on for a long time finally becomes good) or "Kommt Zeit kommt Rat" (Come time comes advice) and in my opinion the decisive key in the case of Hive is precisely this time.
I personally decided not to sell my - extra made liquid - Hive (other tokens included) recently, despite the apprupt rise and even if this is already more than play money for me. Because I think Hive can do more. The bet is on.
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I want to agree with all you write here. I see some points that are right and will happen if on the way the community grows in a healthy manner. Once we were shown how strong the community is with Justin clusterfuck. I think it's a super-cool story for everyone in crypto to understand what's going on here at Hive. We have all proven a point here. The next milestone would be the all so often talked about mass adoption that is missing. Any VC looks for some money turning, depending on the financing round they look for more secure investment if we talk about billions they will want to know that Hive is going to last. Then we are back at the programs that run to onboard more users. That will always be the driver.
In the past years, I talked about the platform a lot to my friends that are also active on Facebook and Instagram. I love it here on Hive but I am super techy, the usability of Instagram is just overwhelmingly easy and everyone is there (kind of on a downtrend to our advantage), but still. The barriers are still super high compared to what's there and all so easy.
If we are here posting in 3 years with an even bigger base then yeas big of growth can come from that. If we hit 10$ it would be amazing then it is not too far out for your dream of 100$ to become reality. I would also love to say I was there on day ONE when we said f... you Justin and created that new community.
This is a well written piece and it does raise a lot of good points.
I think once it becomes spotted by the mianstream we will see it being bought in big amounts and the price rising
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I had the privilege of a pleasant chat with Bob Metcalfe over breakfast at a conference a couple months ago (he saw my brass rat and struck up a conversation). He is a really smart, down-to-earth guy.
That is very cool. Having a conversation with a brilliant mind like him is a great experience to have. Now I am curious about the brass rat and how helpful it is in networking.
The brass rat is actually a gold beaver.
It is the class ring from MIT (dating back to 1927; here is a bit of its history). Every class designs their own, but they all have the beaver on the top and the great dome on one side.
Bob was class of '69. I was class of '91.
I like your example and how dey fit inside what you are explaining but I guess I still need more I.Q to bring this into reality, things are a bit glitchy in my head despite the explanation.
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Hmmm, it's absolutely possible! I do believe the HIVE -> HBD conversion was a long overdue and much needed feature, and it opens HIVE up to the likely future of it being more deflationary instead of just inflationary and that would of course yield a nice rise in price. And as you mentioned, the future is leaning away from cable and toward online media consumption, streaming and games are continuing to explode, and the thing about HIVE is that it can ideally benefit from all of these different ways of consuming media and entertainment because of it being so open and malleable. $100 per HIVE seems like a stretch, but a few years ago when HIVE was only 15 cents, $3.50 seemed out of this world! So Who Knows, but I'm in. 😎👍
That is really a great thought experiment.
There are so many implications of a $100 Hive price. Well, it would definitely start long before that.
I found the Hive approach really compelling. Giving value to the community and the network and getting some return in Hive tokens. That is really something you are not to experience on Facebook and the like.
Yes, Hive is definitely a great place to be. And I would love it, if the price would rise to $100. But hopefully, by that time I have more tokens accumulated!
Keep up the great work!
Cheers,
@andy-plays
!gif thank you
Via Tenor
Only one caveat you need users.
That’s one thing I have learnt on Hive, no matter how decentralized we preach, centralization has to start first before handing over to decentralization. Haven’t seen a case of the reverse yet.
I love your spirit of investment and financial strategy @geekgirl. Lots of golden lessons and ideas to learn from this. I'm optimistic someday hive will definitely hit a $100 price tag. Those who're likely to benefit the most are the stake investors on a longterm goal.
How did Hive get to this point? Understanding its historical progression, strengthening it and multiplying same can see Hive scaling mountain. This. requires consistent understanding and cooperation by all stakeholders.