Less than a week ago I powered down 10000 Hive, and already I've spent 8000. One of the times I dumped on the market Hive spiked 15% literally five minutes after I sold. Oh the pain! It cuts deep!

Seller's Remorse

It's been a long time since I've talked about seller's remorse (February 2021). The same rules still apply: buyer beware; seller's remorse. No matter what we do it's never going to be the optimal decision, and it's very easy to get trapped in what-if mode.

but but but... what if i had traded the market purrfectly!

Uh huh

Of course those of us who know better realize that this is impossible. No matter what moves we make in this market we are ALWAYS going to be disappointed because there was always a better move in retrospect. Even if you HODL an asset and that asset moons, you still could have leveraged your position x100 for maximum gains.

This is a terrible mindset to get stuck in, because it will cause us to make worse and worse decisions as we go on tilt.

So what have I been spending my money on?

Well, my girlfriend really really need to borrow some money until the next fiscal year when she'll get a huge bonus. I was sort of upset about this first as I have been waiting for Q4 2021 since I entered the ecosystem in late 2017. How dare you ask me for money at the absolute worst time.

It seemed like a massive opportunity cost.

What if the money I loan her would have gone x10? That would be the worst! However, I needed to take a step back and realize that this future I've been expecting is not set in stone. It didn't take me long to accept that taking a tiny bit of gains and having USD paid back to me in early January is actually going to be a nice little hedge.

Plus, it's just nice being physically able to pay for things.

I have been clawing and scraping in crypto for four damn years, and I have never taken anything out of the system for more than three of those years. Taking a tiny bit of money out for an emergency expense was not a big deal, and it feels nice to actually contribute for once.

But that was only 2000 Hive...

So what did I spend the other 6000 on? Various other tokens. I've been trying to get more RUNE and MATIC but I'm not too keen on buying in while they're so close to previous all time highs. The biggest thing that I loaded up on was LEO.

LEO Stronk

I really owed it to LEO to stack up a bit more. Back when you could get 4 Hive for 1 LEO I was selling fairly aggressively. Lots of LEO bulls were saying I was throwing my money away. Obviously that sentiment did not age well, as I can buy back in the other way and trade 1 Hive for 4 LEO. If I can keep getting trades like that, consider me a billionaire in no time.

Double airdrop

Even with the 'loss' of 8000 Hive, my Hive bag is still my biggest one. It's hard to be too remorseful about selling off my biggest bag into the smaller ones. That's what volatility trading and portfolio rebalancing is all about. It doesn't matter if this is the less profitable play, because it is the safest play.

All that being said Hive has the @threespeak airdrop coming, and I'm not going to be surprised if Hive goes 10x just because people go apeshit over airdrops. This makes me very nervous about selling anymore Hive. I was listening to TheyCallMeDan's last vlog and IIRC he said that snapshot is going to be taken on January 6th. That's less than 7 weeks away, and it's probably already getting priced in as WeSpeak.

The thing about airdrops is that you can't sell the news until after the snapshot has been taken. So unlike other fundamental developments that often start selling off a month before launch, airdrop fomo can do nothing but increase for the next 6 weeks straight.

LEO THOUGH

At the same time LEO is making massive fundamental gains, to the point that I will have to write a totally separate post to analyze it all. LEO will also have an airdrop soon™ (project Blank) which is clearly not being priced in by the market. LEO's market cap is under $2.5M, which is an insanely low market cap. Even CUB, which is supposed to be a sub-set of the LEO ecosystem, has more than double the MC of the "main chain". It's clearly extremely undervalued.

With the PolyCUB launch right around the corner, number can only go up with LEO. Lot's of LEO is going to be sucked away from current liquidity providers and pumped into the new pLEO LP on Polygon. There's really no way that the price can dump from here.

Rampant Speculation

Imagine LEO went viral and had as much adoption as Shiba Inu. That's an x10000 run from $2.5M to $25B. One LEO would be worth $2700. How insane would that be? Think it's impossible? It's not. Crypto does not play by the rules.

In fact, I obviously expect both LEO and Hive to moon, not that much, but I won't be surprised if they do. The messed up thing is this is not an outcome we should root for; because it is rooted in selfishness and centralization. If prices spike too fast then new users will not be able to buy in at a fair price, and the chance that they get dumped on and ragequit is very high. This would very much hurt our overall long-term growth-rate. We've seen it happen before, and it is almost certain to happen again at some point.

Luckily LEO's liquidity is extremely high and it would be hard to push up the price that quickly. Hive, on the other hand, will have extremely thin liquidity until we finally implement an AMM yield farm. Although I don't expect such a development to actually happen for several years. It needs to be blatantly obvious to everyone that this is necessary before it actually happens.

Development.

Things are moving very fast on both Hive and LEO. If Hive happens to spike quite a bit more I'll be looking to get a heavier position into Splinterlands. Hell, maybe I'll even start playing the game like I should have years ago. Get me some real NFTs.

Conclusion

Not feeling good about spending so much Hive in such a short period of time. I knew this had a high chance of happening, which is why I modified the 10k powerdown per week back down to 1k immediately.

That being said I'm in a good position to save my money, and it's an even better position to buy back into Hive if/when my other bags moon. My ultimate goal of being a Hive whale is still a top priority, and it will take me years to get there if I only focus on my blog. Hoping to get there much sooner than that. Don't forget: I only just became an Orca at the beginning of the year.

_{December 21, 2020}

It truly is insane how far I've come since then.
Looking to keep up this momentum.

All my hard work is paying off, and that's great, but honestly my real mission is to build so that others can share in this success. If only this was the goal of everyone in the space. All in good time I suppose. Until then... keep stacking. Even if Bitcoin doesn't moon over the next few months, Hive and LEO will.

Never underestimate airdrops.

Lots of money is going to pour into these networks soon™.
Keep stacking.
Keep stacking.
Keep stacking.

Posted Using LeoFinance ^Beta