Market Watch: Make or Break
Bitcoin looking madly bullish
Of course coming from me that means this resistance line at $45k is going to punk us hard in the short term and send us cratering back towards a bounce at $40k, but that's irrelevant. In the medium term, Bitcoin and crypto in general are bullish for many reasons.
From what I can tell, we basically got the perfect February and March bottom out that one would expect from an all time high at the end of the year 2021. Again, we aren't out of March yet, but April is upon us, and April is often a super safe month that's always going to be sideways or slightly up, which is the exact opposite of March (sideways or down).
- April 2021 we traded sideways at the top.
- April 2020 we were trading up after the COVID crash.
- April 2019 marked the foothills of a full-blown bull market.
- April 2018 was a massive dead-cat bounce up +50%.
- April 2017 was a slow grind up into the end-of-year MEGA-bubble.
- April 2016 was boring and slightly up.
- April 2015 traded sideways.
- April 2014 traded sideways at the bottom of a huge March dip.
April is legit never a bad trading month.
Again, most of the time it's sideways or slightly up; usually pretty boring. However, in the current context I would guess that it marks the beginning of another sweet bull market like it did in 2019. This is because Bitcoin has been on an 18 month cycle of bull markets since Summer 2016.
- Summer 2016
- Winter 2017
- Summer 2019
- Winter 2020
- Summer 2022
This also seems to line up with our relationship to the doubling curve.
2022 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27733 | $29867 | $32,000 | $34133 | $36267 | $38400 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40533 | $42667 | $44800 | $46933 | $49067 | $51200 |
After double bottoming at $35k twice, we appear to be in a damn good position over the next 3 months. I'm expecting some kind of peak in May or June, and hopefully I'll actually be able to DCA sell during that time so I can actually buy the dip in September for once. Making the plan is easy... sticking to the plan is not so easy. the FOMO is real.
World Economy
The biggest threat to the crypto market this year will be the legacy markets that crypto is correlated to when we trade higher than the curve. These sanctions against Russia hurt the entire world, not just Russia. Putin has demanded that "non-friendly" countries buy their oil with the Ruble, which is a huge slap in the face to USD hegemony and the entire concept of the Petrodollar (forcing countries to buy crude oil with USD). Already the Ruble has regained a ton of the ground it lost from the sanctions, and Europe is basically at the mercy of these exports, as their gas prices have always been sky high to begin with.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: the "V-shaped" recovery we made in the wake of the COVID crash March 2020 was a complete farce. We've been in a slow motion train-wreck ever since, and many of the supply-chain issues have not improved. With the FED raising rates to "combat inflation" there's a very real chance this entire house of cards falls over and we get hit with a wicked two year bear market. Honestly looking at the actions of world leaders... it's like they are doing it on purpose, but I won't trail off into conspiracy theory land.
Russia and Ukraine
All of a sudden both of these countries have a reason to use crypto. Just six months ago Putin was bashing Bitcoin saying it would never be used for something as important as the purchase of oil. Now they are openly talking about Bitcoin being an option. It's pretty wild on multiple levels.
Then we have Ukraine, that is accepting crypto donations to bolster the war effort, which again, is so crazy on so many levels I wouldn't even know where to begin.
The main takeaway here is that crypto is clearly coming front and center into the arena when the going gets tough. What we need to realize is that... once the infrastructure for crypto is in place, that infrastructure will exist... forever. Say five years down the line when there is no war and Russia isn't avoiding sanctions, it doesn't matter. The infrastructure built to incorporate crypto into the system will still be around, and in my opinion it can only gain adoption over time as it clearly has exponential value. People are going to want a piece of that pie no matter what's going on in the world.
Trying to tame the beast
Enterprise blockchain has basically been strapped at this point, and the next push for crypto dominance comes in the form of CBDC. Too little, too late, government. CBDCs are quite silly, and can only add value to real cryptocurrency. This is especially true when we see that individual cities and corporations are already booting up their own currencies. I'll tell you right now, I'd trust Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk before I'd trust politicians in control of a currency. I'd even trust Miami coin more than I'd trust FEDcoin. The cat is out of the bag, and currency is no longer something that the gatekeepers of this world can horde for themselves.
Conclusion
April is never a bad month, and we've just come off the tail end of a classic FEB/MARCH bottom out as we lead into a 18-month bull cycle. The market is looking pretty up up up, and as long as the legacy market doesn't implode in the next three months I'd say we are good.
That being said, the chance that we enter a real bear market for the first time since Bitcoin's inception is high. If we happen to get that bull market this summer, those who get greedy, FOMO in at the top, and don't take gains on the way up, are going to get WRECKED on the way down. It's not going to be pretty. Don't be surprised if this house of cards topples over at the end of the year.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Notice many "new users" on Hive? Not many, like this place is a disease. No outside communities bringing in new comers. No other sites having many links or no links to any articles from Hive on sites that show professional interests they view as noteworthy to a profession or hobby. Hive articeles are rare on reddit.com. Wouldnt people post on reddit.com with links to their articles attracting their own new following and groups? No crypto forums acknowledge Hive exists as a place to be either. Ever seen a person asking for support show a way to give support with HIVE listed as a supporting wallet address? Is there a world address on Hive for countries made more unfortunate because of Hive? Would a large Hive holder or large earner of Hive donate a LARGE amount of Hive to help support Ukraine? What? Support something thing that could attract unwanted media attention? Nothing to see here......I dont get out much though.
People are hiding exposure to Hive. People either play dumb, could be scared or intimidated, mislead or dont beilieve it. Maybe just not electronically cultured enough to know. Who knows. Its mostly fake with fake attention paid for by people with ill intentions as many do gloating in their own groups special mindset. Such a small town here to support this kind of high pay. Who is buying Hive tokens with no notable new user base coming in? People trying to buy this place as a grooming ground on the sly. Articles that arent in the interests of their own goals and views dont get much attention. I dont see many high paid articles I would put on a real news sites or link to as noteworthy. Be part of one of their groups and they groom you. They buy comment and article writers in ways that keep their lies hidden. Here to take our FREEDOMS completely in treason as the sacks of shit they are.
Most interest groups and businesses have discord rooms on the side because they wont talk here or more able to teach views there to shill out of public view. They can do odd stuff to you in discord rooms they cant do here. I’ve seen people get mugged and shaken down in discords, be careful while visiting new discords, even if they are a business. They shut down the discord room along with all of the evidence of their crimes the group around @fyrstikken and his discord server @steemspeak. They also hide behind skirts there while on the creep like they do in the new ones they are in.
The operators doing V2K with remote neural monitoring want me to believe this lady @battleaxe is an operator. She is involved in the same discord groups around @fyrstikken and friends. Her discord is Battleaxe#1003. Shes in some groups with seemingly detached characters that dont even acknowledge the others in the group, looking oddly staged. She starts projects and does nothing with it or the delegations after its used to sway people. Like @steempowertwins does<------fake along with her @teamgood <------fake. No substance in her comments and has a following that adores her for what? Life coach she is not nor is she insightful with any meaningful skills to follow. Ruler of pixie dust maybe? I would like for someone to show me but probably wont out fear maybe? @fyrstikken groups around him down voted me into censored and not viewable on my accounts as soon I told what they were doing.
I cant prove @battleaxe is the one directly doing the V2K and RNM. Doing it requires more than one person at the least. It cant be done alone. She cant prove she is not one of the ones doing V2K because she cant and could care less. I guarantee she knows this is going around and still wont prove it because she cant. Many of us here can prove what they have been doing to survive the past 5 years. What does she live off of? It definitely isnt in public view here.
I was drugged in my home covertly, it ended badly. They have been trying to kill me using RNM with applied V2K mental games while revealing as many accessories to the crime as they can. I bet nobody does anything at all. Ask @battleaxe to prove it. I bet she wont. Pretty serious accusations to just blow off and leave the crypto community hanging in fear of this danger.
They want me to believe the V2K and RNM in me is being broadcast from her location. And what the fuck is "HOMELAND SECURITY" doing about this shit? I think stumbling over their own dicks maybe? Just like they did and are doing with the Havana Syndrome. They should start by looking at the communications between the top witnesses of Hive and the connection to @fyrstikken groups. Google his fucking name and see where his other interests lie around at least once maybe? The connections between @fyrstikken groups and all the exchanges built for Hive? Bet that would reveal some crazy ball less nutty shit. Homeland security should start preparing for their own incarcerations seeing how sloppy this was done. Patriot act my ass. Think we are really fools? Bad position your not getting out of. Dont be last to blow the whistle. Who will protect you?
People in and around @fyrstikkens groups are reckless and should have shown the proper media what they had before taking me hostage for 5 long torturing years and counting. That is a long time to wait for someone to die.
What would you say while having a gun pointed at your head from an undisclosed location? Have people find it? My hands are tied while they play like children with a gun to my head. Its a terrorist act on American soil while some yawn and say its not real or Im a mental case. Many know its real. This is an ignored detrimental to humanity domestic threat. Ask informed soldiers in the American military what their oath is and why nothing is being done. Nobody has I guess. Maybe someone told ill informed soldiers they cant protect America from military leaders in control that have ill intent. How do we protect locked up soldiers prevented from telling the truth from being treated as criminals? Not to mention civilians we let our leaders treat the same way. https://ecency.com/fyrstikken/@fairandbalanced/i-am-the-only-motherfucker-on-the-internet-pointing-to-a-direct-source-for-voice-to-skull-electronic-terrorism-terrorism
The market is moving in a progressive state which is very impressive seeing all prices go up which I probably believe it's still going to pump up to a more positive one.
Never dull in the markets. I enjoyed reading what you wrote. And, i appreciate your predictions. We shall see how this wheel keeps spinning. Time will tell us & soon we will know. :) In the meantime, Go Hive et al!!!!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
The Market looks so bullish... Based on your April analysis, it's all looking good. I think it is high time anyway. We've stayed down for a long time.
And yes, this is everywhere. Crypto adoption is happening. It will keep coming. Times are changing. Russia thinking of Bitcoin is very surprising, it looked like a close chapter there.
Thanks for sharing.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Highly likely that the market will move up or down. not financial advice
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
The market is interesting all the time. It's now $45,000, it's not quick this is Normal. I feel that when gold is stall, then BTC will shine !
You forgot to bring on your mountain crash.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Waiting
You just need to keep your mouth shut! You're like that baseball announcer that talks about a no-no and then blows it for everyone! :) I'm kidding of course. Things do feel a bit positive as I sit here and watch BTC flirt with $45K. It's like a 16 year old on his first trip to the drive in...
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Of course they are.
The only control rich people have is over poor people.
As long as we accept money as the dominant controlling factor in life, this is what we get.
Varying degrees of control by those that have some over those that don't have as much.
The whole system is designed to do this.
Our acceptance of money only causes it to cycle.
The rich remain rich, no matter what, and the poor people die.
The sooner the better, for the undertakers.
All hail, crapitalism!
Read this book you can gloss over the mushy parts, the editor probably required those so the book would sell, but the math?
Tell me the math is wrong.
I dare you.
I have links to books that do a more academic job on the math, were you to care to read them.
'Well educated' people have worked this all out in the past, but each time the crowd decides it needs a bully and manifests one for us all.
First they need a master.
Then they need a god.
It isn't easy being in need of neither, the others won't let us be free of their delusions.
Congratulations @edicted! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s):
Your next target is to reach 380000 upvotes.
You can view your badges on your board and compare yourself to others in the Ranking
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word
STOPCheck out the last post from @hivebuzz:
Same here.
I'm countertrading that.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
haha, how? Going long at the top?
Knowing myself pretty good, probably yeah :))
I'm still a super cycle fanatic by the way. Will have to blame Willy Woo for that. Hence I don't believe in bear markets anymore.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
There will be no need for such problems for crypto to take the lead in the future.
Hian! I was enjoying reading till this part. You say what? 😭