Market Watch: Dump Incoming.
Alright... that's it... I'm calling it...
- New Moon tomorrow February 1st.
- We are due for a return to the doubling curve.
- BTC still suck under $40k resistance.
- Hive still trading under the MA(200).
- 22% crash to $30k incoming.
But aren't you always wrong?
Yes, and unlike so many other speculation posts I've done in the past, I'm actually trading this one. I'm fully hedged up and bracing for impact. That's how you know the market is about to spike up! You're welcome!
Seriously though, I am betting on this one, and in a fairly big way. At the same time, if the market goes up, I'm obviously not going to complain about that either. It's just hard to imagine such a thing with so much bearish sentiment out there and the New Moon ushering us into the bearish period.
Truth be told, I hope the market does go up during this two week period: then I can finally stop talking about market cycles like a hippy crystals girl. Yes, this one has an excellent aura! I agree!
Buy range for Hive.
My buy range for Hive in case I'm actually right this time starts at 75 cents and goes all the way down to 61 cents. It is possible that we bottom out at 50 but I'm not looking to time the absolute bottom anyway: we all know how that never works out.
The HIVE/BTC MA(200) is just under 2000 sats.
A nuke to this level while BTC nukes to $30k would be 60 cents.
This is why my ultimate all in for Hive is 60 cents.
I don't think we'll go below the MA(200) vs Bitcoin.
Hive strong.
At the same time you'll see we are days away from a death-cross between the MA(25) and the MA(100). Not fun.
Looking at the USDT chart...
Again we see a death cross between the MA(50) and MA(100).
This one doesn't matter as much because MA(50) is not the default.
I added it myself.
But still... not fun, especially when stuck under the MA(200) for this long.
Margin trading.
I haven't traded on leverage since Ethereum at $230.
Hot damn those were the days.
One of my best trades ever (obviously).
Looking forward to borrowing USD should the price of BTC nuke to $30k.
$20k is off the table.
Many are looking for a return the 2017 ATH.
It only makes sense, right?
2022 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27733 | $29867 | $32,000 | $34133 | $36267 | $38400 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40533 | $42667 | $44800 | $46933 | $49067 | $51200 |
Let me be very clear: Not gonna happen.
Too many people ignore the most obvious logarithmic trendline of BTC.
Fishtail one way when we are peaking at ATH.
Fishtail the other way when we are bleeding.
Stop fish-failing.
The only way BTC gets to $20k is a flash crash that results from a cataclysmic macro-economic event like the COVID crash in March 2020. Meaning that at $30k, even an x2 long wouldn't even get liquidated until $15k, meaning a 2x long at $30k is still a pretty safe bet IMO. Of course if it did nuke to $20k that would obviously be the best time to x3 or even x4 margin trade. It obviously can't go any lower than that; way too much buying pressure; way too much institutional adoption. Think about how many people out there would love to see a $20k flash crash. So so many millionaires/billionaires at this point. $20k BTC is just free money on the table for anyone with the balls to jump in and catch the falling knife.
What about Feb's sorted history?
Hm, yes. February is the best month for traders out of the entire year. So much unpredictable volatility compared to other months. We can almost be certain that somewhere in FEB there will be a big pump, and also somewhere in FEB there will be a big dump; happens every year. Just gotta have the good graces to find it, albeit that is no easy feat (unless of course it dumps first and your only action is buying the dip, can't go wrong there).
At this point I'm still banking on the idea that 2022 is going to be similar to 2014 and 2018, in that the halving years are the only ones that nuke early FEB and pump late FEB, while all the others pump early FEB and nuke late FEB. Make no mistake: one of these things is going to happen, and I'm heavily betting on a dump to the doubling curve over the next two weeks. Of course then again I do have 157k Hive powered up... so there is that! Again I'm obviously not going to complain if number go up.
Conclusion
You know what to do.
Bet against the @edicted.
You know you want to.
Free money, fam.
I put real money on this one.
A lot of it.
Let it ride.
Legit that is just... painfully bearish with a new moon coming.
Yuck: prepare for nuke.
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The humor and sarcasm in your posts always crack me up!!
I'm with you on this one. Stable coins a plenty (wish I would have bought them at 68K though... next time).
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Yeah I'll definitely do more "hedge your bets" posts at x2-x3 the curve.
I was really betting on that mega-bubble way too hard.
I just moved all my LP's over to 50% stable which is likely a good idea all the time... but I always think about the gains I'd miss... I always forget about the money I would have to buy the dip. Maybe this is a new leaf? I doubt it. The second the bulls start running again I am sure I will change my mind pretty quick.
I hope you are right I’m looking for a dip this week to get more money in. Got a check clearing Wednesday
Send it. I don't give a fuck which way it goes. Fucking send it!
I'm not sure I agree, but it's a reasonable guess. I'm holding, but then again, I always hodl.
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Once everyone is tired of Bitcoin being stuck in that descending channel, once we give up and sell, that when it'll pump \o\
Well if it's anything like your past calls I'll say we are in for one of the biggest rallies ever! lol
It does feel like a weak pump though figure we will be bouncing around a few thousand for a while here over the next 2 months.
Yes I'm quite sure the market will crash.
Therefore everyone should cheer.
Interesting, let's see if you're right. I can't say I'm playing anything atm. During dips I just stake and don't have any liquid to do anything lol
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I'm just stacking $LEO, keeping it simple
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LEO strong
you shall be rewarded sir
I hope your wrong. Appreciate the analysis though.
Hi @edicted lovely post first of all, but I really don't under this "New Moon" stuff? And it's used to predict the market??.
Please, I don't know if you can shed more light on it, thanks
Full moon and new moon cycles have been predicting the market for like a year now.
Full moon's are bullish and mark support while new moons are bearish and mark resistance.
We are at the resistance point now for another two weeks.
Wow, thanks for explaining, I will do more research on it.
Won't help you breaking out from that crystal-hippie image of yours, but still... Woow, that is something!
I love hippies with a brain anyway. Thank you for the post, cheers!
Damn, that is hard to deny. I really want to deny it but... (New Moon Hippie, haha) !LOLZ
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lolztoken.com
but I’ve quit smoking loads of times.
Credit: marshmellowman
@edicted, I sent you an $LOLZ on behalf of @hhayweaver
Use the !LOL or !LOLZ command to share a joke and an $LOLZ. (3/6)
Wow, that's interesting! Where's that Moon button on which exchange? 🧐🌕😁 Moon cycles, never crossed my mind to link those to the charts 🚀🌕👍🏽
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The correlation isn't really that strong for the past 6 months I believe
I'll take a wild guess and say it's either going up or down, or down or up.
Definitely not sideways though.
Facts.
Totally fact.
fact attack blackjack
So if you are trading this, does this mean your shorting the market? I don't like shorting and I never considered shorting crypto because it's just way too volatile.
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Nah I just capitulated my entire CUB den into CUB/BUSD.
It hurt, but now I'm farming way more CUB...
Like enough to pay rent and shit.
I've seriously thought about moving mine out of the Kingdom and putting it to work. Pretty much I'd be putting it in and never touching the principle and using the profits instead.
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If you are right, it's time for avg down my hive buying...
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This is well written and funny. It might just be confirmation bias because i agree with a lot of the points. Please accept my apology for this in advance, but did you mean "What about Febs sordid history?
No good sir! Market recovery incoming!! : P
Hopefully, February will be a great month for me like everyone else. So let's see which road to take. Though i have zero knowledge about this fact.
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Good advice, bet against @edicted :)))
I am optimistic about the market trend, although the current rejuvenation might turn back the downtrend. But let's see, anyhow I see healthy mechanics within the crypto market.
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Well you said it yourself the market is gonna moon:)
We should head straight up to 100k. A bigger correction now doesn't work with the summer 2022 time frame
The market is on the bearish trend.we are expecting the market to bull small this month.
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The bull market was cruel as fuck this last year. By the time some of my coins had started making moves it was like April/May, me thinking awesome its not even got started yet. The crash in May was like a dagger to the chest. Bitcoin front run everything, alts kept bleeding and then caught up when Bitcoin was done. It was all stealth, bitcoin just destroyed alt coins and destroyed all rallies. What a horrible market. Next cycle is the real life changing bull market, this one was a flop. See you in a few years if you have survived. Next one should make up for it hopefully or its just a mugs game now.
Also we need to get this coin on Kraken, crypto.com and coinbase. Binance is finished the shit they trying to pull for someone to just have an account is beyond a joke.
Yeah for real though.
Honestly I think things are just getting interesting.
I hedged slightly in Tether too so that if there is a savage bear market which im expecting as well as some serious capitulation across all markets then ill be able to make some good money over the long term. Patience is key, either its going to burn us or not, feel very weak handed in all honesty if the market rallies now it will be painful as fuck for many people. Anything and everything can and will happen because it usually does.