China news roundup / Nachrichten 2024-12-11
China’s monetary shift signals economic worries, but ‘bazooka-style’ stimulus is unlikely, experts say
"The tone from Monday’s Politburo meeting reinforced market’s expectation that the PBOC will likely cut key interest rates by 40 to 50 basis points to close to 1%, towards the end of 2025"
--- 50 basis points equals 0.5%. Over 1 year. What a major expectation...
"While monetary easing might put depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan, “securing the [economic] growth momentum would have higher priority than stabilizing the exchange rate"
--- Dubious. The exchange rate is also a matter of face. The RMB is not allowed to become too weak.
"”The stronger language on Monday does not signal that “bazooka-style stimulus will arrive immediately,”"
--- Shocking! Not immediately. But, hey, the great stimulus will come, if not now then later! Trust the 'experts' who trust the CCP!
China is considering softer currency
"Foreign exchange markets moved on the news, with the yuan falling about 0.3% to 7.2803 per dollar"
--- Phhh... I doubt that the CCP will let the Yuan fall significantly below 7 per dollar.
"As we see it, Chinese authorities understand that they need to establish a negotiating position, and that right now they have first mover advantage. If anything, we think markets are still underestimating the degree to which the yuan could weaken in the next year if tariffs are implemented."
--- As I see it, Chinese authorities feel the need to save face. If anything, I think markets are still underestimating the degree to which the yuan is a symbol of China's (& the CCP's political) power.
How a Chinese firm ran a billion-euro carbon credit scam
"When Stefan Schreiber decided to invest in a carbon emission reduction project with a Chinese company, he was convinced he was dealing with a trustworthy business partner. "They made a very professional impression: the way they presented themselves, the way they communicated," he said."
--- Idiocy. When will German companies & government finally learn how to do business with China?
"What we found was likely a criminal plot that has generated carbon credits worth roughly €1 billion ($1.05 billion) since its implementation in 2020 until it was shut down this year. Dozens of projects in China were approved in Germany, although they did not meet the legal requirements of a specialized carbon scheme set up for the fossil fuel industry.
Many of the industry's big players, we found, invested in the credits, including Shell , Exxon, Total and BP. But Verbio's Schreiber was the only investor willing to talk to us.
The project Schreiber purchased credits from was supposed to save more than 120.000 tons of carbon by collecting gas from an oil extraction site in China's Xinjiang Region. The gas would have otherwise been released into the atmosphere or flared – both of which are a major contributor to global warming.
[...] "This project should never have been approved," said Axel Michaelowa, a leading expert in carbon trading at the University of Zurich.
And yet, it was. By officials who never actually visited the site: The German Environment Agency, which issues the credits, does not inspect them.
"We have three employees who deal with these projects," Dirk Messner, the agency's president, told us. He said those employees don't have the capacity to review all the projects.
Instead, the work is outsourced to private auditing companies. The approval is based on the paperwork provided by these companies. It's a relatively common procedure in carbon certification."
--- Typical for Germany: loads of rules & regulations, but not enough personnel to check. In Germany that still works, because most companies are more or less following the rules, but when dealing with China, this leads to disaster.
London council rejects China’s ‘super-embassy’ plan - again
"“The committee resolved to reject the application due to concerns over the impact on resident and tourist safety, heritage, police resources and highway safety given the congested nature of the area.”
However, the Council noted that the final decision will rest with Angela Rayner, secretary of state for housing, communities and local government, following her intervention on Oct. 14, citing issues of “national significance.”
China has hinted that it won’t allow the British government to go ahead with improvement work to its embassy in Beijing unless the project is given the green light."
--- Sadly, the new UK government is going the way of appeasement again. So, even without Chinese blackmail, they would probably approve that ridiculous 'embassy'.
China's top smartphone player is still years behind the U.S.
Taiwan warns internet celebrities on collusion after video uproar
--- China Uncensored: "Chinese Economists Tried To Warn Us. It Went How You'd Expect"
--- rfa: China Beyond Borders
Betrug an der Tankstelle?
"Bei einem Teil der insgesamt 45 verdächtigen Projekte in China habe seine Behörde beweisen können, dass diese unrechtmäßig seien. „Bei den anderen gilt wie immer die Unschuldsvermutung, bis die Unrechtmäßigkeit bewiesen ist“, hob der UBA-Präsident hervor. Erst dann könne man Bilanz ziehen. „Alles andere ist rechtsstaatlich unzulässig und unseriös.“"
--- Nur schade, daß China kein Rechtsstaat ist. Wird Zeit, daß man das in Deutschland erkennt & dementsprechend mit chinesischen 'Partnern' umgeht.
Insider: China prüft Yuan-Abwertung als Antwort auf Trump-Zölle
"Als Antwort auf drohende US-Zölle erwägen Chinas Spitzenpolitiker Insidern zufolge für 2025 eine Abwertung des Yuan.
Diese Überlegungen spiegelten Chinas Erkenntnis wider, dass größere konjunkturelle Impulse nötig seien, um auf die Drohung des designierten US-Präsidenten Donald Trump von höheren Zöllen zu reagieren, erfuhr die Nachrichtenagentur Reuters von drei mit der Sache vertrauten Personen. Dies wäre eine Abweichung von der üblichen Praxis, den Wechselkurs stabil zu halten."
--- Höchst unwahrscheinlich. Westliche 'Experten' unterschätzen wohl mal wieder, wie wichtig die Gesichtswahrung für die KPCh ist. Man wird den RMB-Wechselkurs kaum unter 7 Yuan pro Dollar fallen lassen. Auch wenn es der Wirtschaft helfen würde.
Taiwan kritisiert neue Militäraktionen Chinas
!HUG