China news roundup / Nachrichten 2024-12-10

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China’s November imports post surprise drop; sharpest decline in 14 months

"Import data surprised with a decline of 3.9%, marking the sharpest fall since September 2023. Analysts had expected imports to grow 0.3%.
Exports rose 6.7% in U.S. dollar terms from a year ago, sharply lower than the 12.7% growth in the previous month."

--- Don't know why these 'analysts' keep getting surprised by low imports. They seem to still believe in that recovery...

"Export growth could further pick up going into early 2025, as U.S. importers continue to “front load” Chinese purchases, said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank, while pointing out there could be “a fall-off in the second half” of next year, as U.S. tariffs bite"

--- Well, yeah, but a lower growth rate in exports doesn't bode well, either. & all official numbers, of course.

‘No winners’: China’s Xi warns US against a trade war

"“Building ‘small courtyards with high walls’ and ‘decoupling and breaking chains’ will hurt others and not benefit oneself. China has always believed that only when China is good can the world be good. Only when the world is good can China be better,”"

--- You wonder, then, why China has built such high walls & has been actively decoupling itself for quite a while now.

Guangzhou Metro starts airport-style scans after deadly attacks

"“All items you carry must go through the security machine,” the Guangzhou Metro notice said. “If there is an alarm when passing through the security door or security machine, the security inspector will manually re-check by opening and searching the bag.”"

--- To be fair, theses machines have been in Chinese subway stations for a long time. Implementation of checks has always been rather lackluster, though. I guess, that this wave of intense checks will go over quickly, too.
(Luckily I'm not visiting China on my way to the Philippines. I would probably run into trouble with knives or some other stuff in my luggage.)

"Weibo users made snarky comments about the long lines at the checkpoints, with one commenting: “Terrorists don’t need to get through security now; they have a much better target in those long lines outside the door.”"

--- Quite true.

China’s maritime movements around Taiwan are largest in decades, Taipei says

"Taiwan has been on high alert since Monday as it braced for expected military drills after President Lai Ching-te sparked Beijing’s ire by making unofficial stops in Hawaii and the US territory of Guam earlier this month."

--- Expected, exactly. So, I don't see why some media make such a big deal of it. There may be more navy ships than before, but still...

In China, people are hiring ‘climbing buddies’ for big money. The more attractive they are, the higher the price

"Rather than forgo her plans, the 25-year-old hired a “climbing buddy,” a young man with extensive outdoor experience, to accompany and support her to the 5,000-foot peak."

--- Phhh... Mind you, 'climbing' a mountain in China usually means using stairs. Virtually all touristy interesting mountains in China have stairways to the top.

"Known in Chinese as “pei pa” (meaning “accompany to climb”), these are young Chinese men who join strangers on their journeys up popular mountains for a price. The trend has gained momentum this year, as hashtags related to “climbing buddy” have had over 100 million views on Chinese social media."

--- Another of those 'trends' Western media find? Just because it has many views on social media doesn't make a widespread trend. By far the most people in China won't have the money to spend on a 'climbing buddy'.

Junta’s push to retake towns in Myanmar heartland prompts fierce fighting

"In their renewed push, junta forces are increasingly using Chinese-made surveillance and combat drones, rebels say, several of which have fallen into the hands of guerrilla groups."

--- China, the peacemaker. In Ukraine & in Burma.

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More China trade ‘hawks’ among Trump’s top State Department picks

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China ‘made wrong bet’ on Assad regime in Syria, say analysts

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--- China Unscripted: "Our Last Podcast On YouTube"

--- Well, good bye, then. I don't usually link to paywalled content.

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Chinas Außenhandel schwächelt - und jetzt kommt Trump

"Wie aus Daten der Pekinger Zollverwaltung hervorging, stiegen die Exporte in US-Dollar berechnet um 6,7 Prozent im Vorjahresvergleich an. Die Importe gingen demnach um 3,9 Prozent zurück. Für beide Werte hatten Analysten im Vorfeld höhere Erwartungen geäußert."

--- Tja, das mit den Analysten ist so eine Sache. Schlimm genug, daß sie sich anscheinend nur auf offizielle chinesische Daten stützen. Aber selbst damit haben sie Probleme.

"Das Politbüro kündigte diese Woche für 2025 eine "proaktivere" Fiskalpolitik an. Das bedeutet, dass Peking die Wirtschaft mit zusätzlichen staatlichen Ausgaben unterstützen will. Diese Maßnahmen könnten insbesondere darauf abzielen, die heimische Nachfrage zu stärken und damit die Abhängigkeit vom Außenhandel zu reduzieren. Auch eine "moderate Lockerung" der Geldpolitik ist vorgesehen."

--- Gähn...

Warum China den Export seltener Elemente in die USA stoppt

"Bei diesen Mineralien handelt es sich um sogenannte Dual-Use-Güter, die sowohl zivil als auch militärisch genutzt werden können."

--- Hirnriss. Dann wären ja alle Rohstoffe Dual-Use.

"Peking reagiert damit auf Ausfuhrkontrollen, die die Vereinigten Staaten unmittelbar zuvor gegen China verhängten."

--- Grmpf... Es darf bezweifelt werden, daß das tatsächlich eine direkte Reaktion war. Vielmehr war so ein Schritt vermutlich von langer Hand geplant & wurde bestenfalls etwas vorgezogen.

"Welche Gefahren eine Unterbrechung der Versorgung mit diesen Metallen birgt, ist nur zu gut bekannt. Im November 2024 warnte die US Geological Survey, ein vollständiges Ausfuhrverbot von Gallium und Germanium durch China könne zu einem Einbruch des US-Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 3,4 Milliarden US-Dollar (3,23 Milliarden Euro) führen."

--- Welch eine Gefahr! Bei einem BIP von ca. 29 Billionen Dollar im Jahr 2024, wäre das ja 1/8000. Eine Katastrophe!

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